There were eight 2013 NFL coaching changes. “Wait,” you say, “there were eight coaching changes? I thought there were only seven?” Don’t worry. You’ll see.
The question “How will a coaching change impact a player’s Fantasy value?” is a complex one. Daniel Kahneman says, “If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly … [we] will find a related question that is easier and will answer it. I call the operation of answering one question in place of another substitution.”
We could sit here, and I could blow smoke up your butt, which would not be comfortable for you or me, and I could tell you the reasons why every coach will turn every Fantasy relevant player on their team into a Pro Bowler. But how helpful would that be?
Instead of taking the question, “What impact will 2013 NFL coaching changes have on Fantasy players?” which is a complex question, we’ll answer easier, indirect questionsn. What do we know about these coaches?
2013 NFL Coaching Changes:
Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
What do we know about Bruce Arians? Well, last year he took a team that went 2-14 in 2011, and turned them into an 11-5 team. Chuck Pagano had a lot to do with the metamorphosis of the Colts into a competitive franchise, but Arians was placed in a difficult situation when Pagano left the team to take care of his health issues.
Great coaches rise out of difficult situations, and the situation that Arians found himself in, as the 2012 season started, could not have been any more problematic.
Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills
Marrone has coached in the NFL under Herm Edwards and Sean Payton. After 2008, Marrone, a Syracuse alumnus, decided to accept the head coaching position at his alma mater. In his four seasons at Syracuse, Marraone produced a 25-25 record, two bowl victories, and nine NFL draft picks.
With his first-round pick in QB E.J. Manuel, Marrone will run an unconventional/evolutionary offense by NFL standards. Expect the Bills to run a lot of zone read plays that will allow their offense to freeze the opposition’s linebackers and defensive line.
Manuel’s speed will complement the dynamic RB duo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, while his arm, which holds the ACC record for completion percentage, will look to connect with Steve Johnson and fellow rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.
Marc Trestman, Chicago Bears
The Bears will be the 11th team — professional or otherwise — that Trestman has been involved with over his 30-year coaching career. Trestman has worked with a strong quarterback class that includes Rich Gannon, Steve Young, Bernie Kosar, Jake Plummer, and Scott Mitchel, while he has also worked with Hall-of-Fame coach Bud Grant, when he was with the Vikings.
Trestman has been around the block, and one has to wonder why he has not been given a chance before.
Maybe he is too smart for his own good.
Maybe he has slipped through the cracks.
Maybe he will be what the Bears need to become a contender.
Whatever the outcome will be, Trestman has a pedigree as an offensive mind that few can rival. The Bears offensive side of the ball has Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte, and the combination of these offensive weapons, with the offensive experience that Trestman brings to the table, will equal a solution that is still yet to be known.
Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
“Sean Payton isn’t a new coach!”
Well, he kind of is. He didn’t coach the Saints last year.
Headed into their Week 6 bye, the Saints found themselves with a 1-4 record. With disdain in their mouths that tasted like a combination of bad shellfish and what one would assume Roger Goodell tastes like — probably on the gamey side of the spectrum.
The Saints battled their way back, and finished the season with a 7-9 record. This is the same Saints team that finished 13-3 in 2011. What changed? Coaching. Roger Goodell rightly or wrongly screwed the Saints’ head coach and several of its defensive players, which resulted in a wash of a year for the city of New Orleans.
Payton probably does not account for the difference in six wins from 2011 to 2012, but he does account for some of the offensive production and efficiency that the team lost.
We focused on four of the eight 2013 NFL coaching changes today. Look for the next four later in the week.
Devon Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed him here, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.