Top Fantasy Baseball Seasons of All Time

Jan 14

Top Fantasy Baseball Seasons of All Time

The MLB Hall of Fame results came out last week, and I thought it would be interesting to take a look at Fantasy Baseball from a historical perspective. So I looked at the top Fantasy Baseball seasons of all time, and thought about how those seasons give us a glimpse into larger offensive trends and the reasons for those developments. Top Fantasy Baseball Seasons SeasonNameTeamABHRRRBISBAVGzSCR 1894Billy HamiltonPhillies544419287980.40424.42 1921Babe RuthYankees54059177171170.37824.29 1911Ty CobbTigers5918147127830.4224.17 1887Pete BrowningColonels54741371181030.40223.80 1894Hugh DuffyBeaneaters53918160145480.4423.44 1887Arlie LathamBrowns6272163831290.31622.93 1895Billy HamiltonPhillies517716674970.38922.40 1887Charlie ComiskeyBrowns53841391031170.33522.26 1931Lou GehrigYankees61946163184170.34122.06 1922Rogers HornsbyCardinals62342141152170.40121.90 1930Hack WilsonCubs5855614619130.35621.78 1927Babe RuthYankees5406015816470.35621.75 1927Lou GehrigYankees58447149175100.37321.64 1932Jimmie FoxxAthletics5855815116930.36421.63 1915Ty CobbTigers563314499960.36921.62 1997Larry WalkerRockies56849143130330.36621.58 1930Chuck KleinPhillies6484015817040.38621.51 1891Tom BrownReds5895177721060.32121.41 1930Lou GehrigYankees58141143174120.37921.16 1896Joe KelleyOrioles5198148100870.36421.09 1920Babe RuthYankees45754158137140.37620.90 1920George SislerBrowns63119137122420.40720.87 1998Sammy SosaCubs64366134158180.30820.73 1887Tip O'NeillBrowns51714167123300.43520.52 2007Alex RodriguezYankees58354143156240.31420.47 1936Lou GehrigYankees5794916715230.35420.35 1923Babe RuthYankees52241151131170.39320.35 1931Babe RuthYankees5344614916350.37320.34 1930Al SimmonsAthletics5543615216590.38120.32 2001Barry BondsGiants47673129137130.32820.20 1930Babe RuthYankees51849150153100.35920.19 1922Ken WilliamsBrowns58539128155370.33220.18 1930Babe HermanRobins61435143130180.39320.18 1934Lou GehrigYankees5794912816590.36320.14 1938Jimmie FoxxRed Sox5655013917550.34920.14 1891Billy HamiltonPhillies5272141601110.3420.10 2001Sammy SosaCubs5776414616000.32820.07 1891Hugh DuffyReds5369134110850.33620.00 1909Ty CobbTigers5739116107760.37719.96 1893Ed DelahantyPhillies59519145146370.36819.94 1922George SislerBrowns5868134105510.4219.93 1996Ellis BurksRockies61340142128320.34419.93 1937Joe DiMaggioYankees6214615116730.34619.90 1896Hughie JenningsOrioles5210125121700.40119.89 1895Hughie JenningsOrioles5294159125530.38619.86 1929Rogers HornsbyCubs6023915614920.3819.82 1926Babe RuthYankees49547139150110.37219.80 1894Jake StenzelPirates52213148121610.35419.77 1932Chuck KleinPhillies65038152137200.34819.73 1889Billy HamiltonCowboys5343144771110.30119.71 1895Joe KelleyOrioles51810148134540.36519.69 1895Sam ThompsonPhillies53818131165270.39219.58 1897Willie KeelerOrioles564014574640.42419.51 1901Nap LajoieAthletics54414145125270.42619.42 1894Walt WilmotColts5975134130740.3319.41 1890Harry StoveyReds4811214284970.29919.38 1937Hank GreenbergTigers5944013718380.33719.35 1985Rickey HendersonYankees5472414672800.31419.35 1896Willie KeelerOrioles544415382670.38619.33 1887Denny LyonsAthletics5706128102730.36719.33 1998Alex RodriguezMariners68642123124460.3119.32 1914Benny KauffHoosiers571812095750.3719.22 1894Joe KelleyOrioles5076165111460.39319.21 1889Harry StoveyAthletics55619152119630.30819.21 2000Todd HeltonRockies5804213814750.37219.15 1928Babe RuthYankees5365416314240.32319.15 1930Kiki CuylerCubs64213155134370.35519.06 1899Ed DelahantyPhillies5819135137300.4119.03 1925Rogers HornsbyCardinals5043913314350.40319.01 1924Babe RuthYankees5294614312190.37818.99 1895Ed DelahantyPhillies48011149106460.40418.99 1938Hank GreenbergTigers5565814414670.31518.98 1982Rickey HendersonAthletics53610119511300.26718.96 1933Jimmie FoxxAthletics5734812516320.35618.95 1993Barry BondsGiants53946129123290.33618.94 1897George DavisGiants51910112136650.35318.92 1929Lefty O'DoulPhillies6383215212220.39818.90 1890Hugh DuffyPirates596716182780.3218.85 1894John McGrawOrioles512115692780.3418.84 1895Bill LangeColts4781012098670.38918.83 2001Alex RodriguezRangers63252133135180.31818.83 1956Mickey MantleYankees53352132130100.35318.77 1887Mike GriffinOrioles532314294940.30118.76 1949Ted WilliamsRed Sox5664315015910.34318.73 1887John WardGiants5451114531110.33818.66 1912Ty CobbTigers553712083610.40918.65 1948Stan MusialCardinals6113913513170.37618.65 1896Billy HamiltonBeaneaters523315252830.36518.64 1890Tommy McCarthyBrowns548613769830.3518.61 2011Matt KempDodgers60239115126400.32418.59 1963Hank AaronBraves63144121130310.31918.57 1996Barry BondsGiants51742122129400.30818.50 1997Ken Griffey Jr.Mariners60856125147150.30418.49 1962Frank RobinsonReds60939134136180.34218.48 1998Mark McGwireCardinals5097013014710.29918.47 2001Todd HeltonRockies5874913214670.33618.47 1888John ReillyRed Stockings52713112103820.32118.46 1955Willie MaysGiants58051123127240.31918.45 1936Hal TroskyIndians6294212416260.34318.42 1988Jose CansecoAthletics61042120124400.30718.39 The original Billy Hamilton, as we will call him, played from 1888 to 1901 for the Phillies, Beaneaters, and Cowboys, was appropriately named “Sliding Billy,” and was voted into the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1961. While Hamilton set numerous records in his career, the numbers that he put up in 1894 allowed him to have the greatest Fantasy Baseball season of all time. And they tell us something about the offensive trends of that era and why they occurred. In 1894, Hamilton set the all-time record for most runs in a season with 198, and he...

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Closer Busts: Top 38 Relievers by Steamer & Oliver Projections

Jan 06

Closer Busts: Top 38 Relievers by Steamer & Oliver Projections

This post will wrap up our series on 2014 Fantasy Baseball busts. We’ve looked at outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, and now we will examine closer busts. As a supplement to this discussion we will look at the velocity loss leaders from 2013 at the end of the post. More so than any other position in Fantasy Baseball, a closers’ value is based primarily on opportunity. The best middle relief pitcher is not as valuable as the worst closer; saves are all that matter. As long as a pitcher gets the opportunity to pitch in the ninth inning, he can be a valuable Fantasy asset. Ask Shawn Chacon about his 2004 season, and he’ll be able to attest. That said I’ve chosen to rank any pitcher that has a likely possibility to close in 2014 (i.e. Jake McGee), and all closers that were ranked in the top 132 pitchers for last year’s final roto ranks (i.e. Edward Mujica). (If you read the previous two articles you can skip the next two paragraphs, which describe how we define a bust.) To ascribe an analytic value to how we quantify a bust, we will look at a player’s 2013 roto value and a hybrid of their Steamer and Oliver projections. Bust: Our formula for a bust will be a player’s projected 2014 roto value—this forecasted value will be composed of an average between a player’s Steamer and Oliver projections—minus their 2013 roto value. (Values will be calculated for a 12-team 5×5 roto league) Steamer & Oliver Closer Ranks PlayerProjected tzSCR2013 tzSCRDIFF Kevin Gregg-8.79-2.09-6.70 Edward Mujica-6.05-0.62-5.43 Chris Perez-7.25-2.49-4.77 Jose Veras-6.84-2.20-4.64 Fernando Rodney-4.92-0.54-4.37 Heath Bell-6.63-2.74-3.89 Brandon League-7.71-4.28-3.44 Joaquin Benoit-3.31-0.11-3.20 Rex Brothers-4.60-1.45-3.15 Joe Nathan0.002.30-2.30 Jason Grilli-3.25-1.03-2.22 Tom Wilhelmsen-5.62-3.53-2.09 Steve Cishek-0.270.29-0.56 Koji Uehara2.042.47-0.43 Rafael Soriano-1.09-0.70-0.39 Greg Holland2.242.56-0.32 Jim Henderson-0.57-0.33-0.24 Sergio Romo0.240.240.00 Casey Janssen-0.17-0.300.13 Addison Reed0.14-0.100.24 Huston Street-0.70-0.970.27 Craig Kimbrel3.463.070.39 Grant Balfour-0.24-0.710.47 Bobby Parnell-0.32-0.900.58 Glen Perkins1.170.380.80 Jonathan Papelbon0.34-0.751.09 Kenley Jansen2.841.741.10 Mark Melancon0.92-0.251.17 Ernesto Frieri0.51-0.861.37 Aroldis Chapman2.731.221.51 Danny Farquhar0.53-3.093.61 Trevor Rosenthal2.36 Jake McGee0.76 David Robertson0.67 Tommy Hunter0.31 Nate Jones-0.35 John Axford-0.84 LaTroy Hawkins-1.98 *Rosenthal, McGee, Robertson, Hunter, Jones, Axford, and Hawkins did not finish in the top 132 pitchers from last year so their is no 2013 rank for them, but I thought it would be helpful to look a their...

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Top 25 Starting Pitcher Busts: Oliver and Steamer Projections

Dec 30

Top 25 Starting Pitcher Busts: Oliver and Steamer Projections

We looked at outfield busts two weeks ago and infield busts lasts week, while our attention will turn to the biggest starting pitching busts of 2014 this week; we’ll look at closer busts next week. (If you read the previous two articles you can skip the next two paragraphs, which describe how we define a bust.) To ascribe an analytic value to how we quantify a bust, we will look at a player’s 2013 roto value and a hybrid of their Steamer and Oliver projections. Bust: Our formula for a bust will be a player’s projected 2014 roto value—this forecasted value will be composed of an average between a player’s Steamer and Oliver projections—minus their 2013 roto value. (Values will be calculated for a 12-team 5×5 roto league) Starting Pitcher Busts PlayerProjected 20142013DIFF Jason Marquis-9.11-4.40-4.71 Samuel Deduno-7.64-3.49-4.14 Clay Buchholz-2.601.52-4.11 Jorge de la Rosa-5.25-1.28-3.97 Jeff Locke-6.00-2.38-3.62 Tyler Chatwood-6.55-3.28-3.26 Martin Perez-5.73-2.63-3.10 Travis Wood-2.540.17-2.71 Hisashi Iwakuma1.724.36-2.64 Jeremy Guthrie-5.66-3.09-2.58 Julio Teheran-1.061.42-2.48 Jhoulys Chacin-3.03-0.67-2.36 Bronson Arroyo-2.66-0.32-2.34 Chris Tillman-1.570.69-2.26 Bartolo Colon0.042.19-2.15 Mike Leake-2.57-0.47-2.09 Shelby Miller-0.551.51-2.06 Chris Archer-2.82-0.91-1.91 Charlie Morton-4.42-2.52-1.90 Francisco Liriano-0.271.59-1.86 Jake Westbrook-6.64-4.88-1.75 Jeremy Hefner-5.81-4.13-1.68 Dillon Gee-2.92-1.25-1.67 Ricky Nolasco-1.64-0.149-1.49 Ubaldo Jimenez-1.200.21-1.42 Bartolo Colon: New York Mets Bartolo Colon is like that crazy friend everyone had in their mid twenties. You loved to party with him, he always had crazy stories, and he always knew girls that were five years younger, tan, had platinum blonde hair, and were built like pin up models; and then he went to rehab because no one can sustain that level of recreational indulgence for long. The same goes for Bartolo Colon. The last couple of years have been fun. You drafted him in the last round or spent a dollar on him, and you were thrilled when he produced like a top twenty pitcher. But, the writing is on the wall, and you don’t want to be the owner that spends money on Colon when the wheels fall off. Colon has been on the DL each of the last two seasons, and according to Jeff Zimmerman’s research done on injury prediction, Colon is the most likely pitcher in baseball to visit the DL in 2014. Clay Buchholz: Boston Red Sox Buchholz will see a regression toward the mean in terms of his 2013...

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Top 25 Infield Busts: Steamer and Oliver Projections

Dec 22

Top 25 Infield Busts: Steamer and Oliver Projections

As a continuation of our 2014 series on Fantasy Baseball busts, we will look at infield busts this week. We looked at outfield busts last week, and, as a reminder, we will look at closers next week, and starting pitching the week after that. (If you read the previous article you can skip the next two paragraphs, which entail how we define a bust.) To ascribe an analytic value to how we quantify a bust we will look at a player’s 2013 roto value and a hybrid of their Steamer and Oliver projections. Bust: Our formula for a bust will be a player’s projected 2014 roto value—this forecasted value will be composed of an average between a player’s Steamer and Oliver projections—minus their 2013 roto value. (Values will be calculated for a 12-team 5×5 roto league) Top 25 Infield Busts Player2014 Projection2013 TotalDiff Jarrod Saltalamacchia-5.57-0.76-4.81 Matt Carpenter0.374.92-4.55 A.J. Pierzynski-6.19-1.64-4.55 David Wright-3.061.39-4.45 Jed Lowrie-3.211.03-4.24 Jose Lobaton-9.79-5.7-4.09 Yadier Molina-2.531.41-3.94 Zack Cozart-5.78-1.95-3.83 Ruben Tejada-12.83-9.01-3.82 Alexi Amarista-10.06-6.28-3.78 Ryan Raburn-6.68-2.98-3.70 Manny Machado-2.321.36-3.68 Brandon Moss-1.751.81-3.56 Josh Donaldson0.704.25-3.55 James Loney-3.72-0.2-3.52 Alberto Callaspo-6.70-3.36-3.34 John Mayberry-8.03-4.69-3.34 Pedro Florimon-7.67-4.35-3.32 Eric Sogard-7.84-4.53-3.31 Ian Desmond-0.332.97-3.30 Brandon Phillips-1.621.66-3.28 Chris Getz-9.75-6.48-3.27 Denard Span-3.57-0.66-2.91 Elvis Andrus-0.132.77-2.90 Clint Barmes-10.96-8.22-2.74 Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Florida Marlins The world champion has moved on from Boston to the fairer weather of Miami. However, with the summer breeze may come dry fields. Saltalamacchia has been projected for a similar power output as he had last year, but is expected to regress in the AVG, runs, and RBI categories. Steamer projects the backstop to score 43 runs and 48 RBI in Miami, while Steamer and Oliver unanimously see a regression from his .273 AVG in 2013 to a career norm: .226 AVG by Steamer, and .230 AVG by Oliver. Matt Carpenter: St Louis Cardinals In his second big league season, at the age of 27, Matt Carpenter was Fantasy Baseball’s 2013 MVP. Whether you were in a snake or auction draft, Carpenter returned massive dividends on the mid round draft pick or few dollars you spent to acquire his talent. However, in the eyes of Steamer and Oliver, the problem with Carpenter’s future value is his age. When you look at the most successful qualified batters who were rookies at the age...

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Top 25 Outfield Busts: Steamer & Oliver Projections

Dec 16

Top 25 Outfield Busts: Steamer & Oliver Projections

For the next four weeks we will look at potential bust candidates for the 2014 Fantasy Baseball season. Our attention will be focused on outfield busts this week and infield busts next week. To ascribe an analytic value to how we quantify a bust we will look at a player’s 2013 roto value and a hybrid of their Steamer and Oliver projections. Bust: Our formula for a bust will be a player’s projected 2014 roto value—this projected value will be composed of an average between a players Steamer and Oliver projections—minus their 2013 roto value. (Values will be calculated for a 12-team 5×5 roto league) Top 25 Outfield Busts Row Labels2014 Projection2013 TotalDiff Marlon Byrd-7.422.43-9.85 Eric Young-9.39-0.84-8.55 Jon Jay-7.87-0.43-7.44 Alfonso Soriano-2.584.57-7.15 Chris Denorfia-7.05-1.28-5.77 Raul Ibanez-6.79-1.28-5.51 Gregor Blanco-8.73-3.57-5.16 Daniel Nava-4.650.27-4.92 Ichiro Suzuki-7.47-2.62-4.85 Jayson Werth-0.314.36-4.67 Drew Stubbs-7.40-2.85-4.55 Gerardo Parra-5.27-1.09-4.18 Torii Hunter-0.933.1-4.03 Rajai Davis-5.26-1.35-3.91 Hunter Pence1.915.73-3.82 Michael Brantley-3.130.66-3.79 Alex Rios1.194.93-3.74 Brandon Moss-1.751.81-3.56 Nate McLouth-3.73-0.18-3.55 Denard Span-3.57-0.66-2.91 Craig Gentry-6.54-3.89-2.65 Alejandro De Aza-1.261.36-2.62 J.B. Shuck-5.41-2.79-2.62 Justin Ruggiano-5.14-2.79-2.35 Jarrod Dyson-6.39-4.13-2.26 Alfonso Soriano: New York Yankees Alfonso Soriano wound the clock back in 2013, but there is reason beyond his 2014 projection to be skeptical about his future. The aging slugger had an average flyball distance of 292.58 feet in 2013, which was up from 2012, but correlates to a 13.6% HR/FB ratio, as opposed to his 18.9% HR/FB power output last year. Soriano stole 18 bases in 2013, but only swiped 17 bags from 2009 to 2012 all together; Steamer projects 8 and Oliver projects 10 stolen bases for Soriano in 2014, and believes more in the credibility of the long-term track record than last season. With less power and speed, Soriano is less likely to feed fantasy owners’ appetites. Raul Ibanez: Free Agent Ibanez hit 29 home runs in a season where he turned 41 years old: impressive. That’s the second most home runs ever by a player in an age 41 season; only five players have ever hit 20 or more home runs at the age of 41. Guess how many players hit more than 20 home runs in a season where they turned 42? This is easy, and you should be able to get it. Yes, just one: Barry Bonds. Do you...

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25 & 25: 2014 Top Rookie and Sophomore Batters

Dec 03

25 & 25: 2014 Top Rookie and Sophomore Batters

Baseball season feels like a lifetime away, and as Fantasy Football season ends, and the cold winter months frost our hearts, the promise of another Fantasy Baseball season is left to warm our bodies with anticipation and hope. To help nurture that fire inside all of us, I thought it would be beneficial to look at the top rookie and sophomore batters for the 2014 season. I took the most recent Steamer projections, filtered out all players that either got more than 150 plate appearances last year or were not rookies, and calculated their 2014 projections into Rotisserie Fantasy value.  (Note: These rankings have not been adjusted for position) As more projection systems come out–Zips came out today–it becomes more insightful to average different systems together to get a better insight. On the pitchers edition of this post, I’ll plan to get as many projections as I can get a hold of. Lets take a closer look at some sophomore batters: NamePAABHRRRBISBAVGWARzSCR Yasiel Puig618547268085200.294.611.28 Wil Myers60653923767790.26338.65 Jedd Gyorko61956424708340.2623.48.24 Avisail Garcia619578166773120.2780.78.23 Evan Gattis54249525647330.2563.97.49 Nolan Arenado57953516627130.2772.77.11 Brad Miller564506136361110.2683.26.90 Kole Calhoun46541414595890.2732.26.71 Jurickson Profar570505126557140.2481.66.38 Oswaldo Arcia48944118566240.2611.46.36 Junior Lake507465125052180.2581.46.29 Nick Franklin597530146461110.241.66.12 Anthony Rendon60853613646230.2552.55.83 Brandon Barnes523478125652170.2371.45.81 Adam Eaton41236465435150.2861.75.68 David Lough45642374649100.2731.45.25 Jonathan Villar40636774239240.2420.95.25 Jose Iglesias57052465654100.2571.25.23 A.J. Pollock44640764348120.2742.25.20 Jordy Mercer50746210525160.2611.95.16 Mike Zunino53147716575840.2262.14.99 Cody Asche43940211454860.2631.44.96 L.J. Hoes44739655336120.270.84.95 Robbie Grossman45339774741130.2470.34.62 Ed Lucas60655310545450.2440.64.62 Avisail Garcia: White Sox Steamer Projection: 16 HR, 67 R, 73 RBI, 12 SB, .278 AVG The key chip for the White Sox in the Jake Peavy trade, Avisail Garcia will have a clear path to the majority of time in right field in 2014. While Garcia has shown poor plate discipline and contact numbers—3.5 BB% and 23 K% in 2013—there is reason to believe that he will be able to hit for a decent average, with a .283 AVG in 256 plate appearances in his age 21 season last year; owners in OBP leagues should stay away. Jedd Gyorko: Padres Steamer Projection: 24 HR, 70 R, 83 RBI, 4 SB, .263 AVG Jedd Gyorko provides the out of position productivity, in the form of home runs and power, at the second base position that Fantasy owners salivate over. The keystone slugged his way to 23 HRs in 2013, while he only played in 125 games, of...

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SportVU: 100 Players’ Future Assist Totals

Nov 19

SportVU: 100 Players’ Future Assist Totals

This article will look at the implications of the new SportVU stats that the NBA has released to the public, and will apply the limited data we have from SportVU to look at the sustainability of assist totals for players this year (SportVU data in this post has been taken up to 11/19). First off, let me say that the SportVU data is remarkable, and if you haven’t seen it yet, you should check it out. What is even more remarkable is that the NBA, unlike other professional sports leagues, has chosen to embrace the analytic movement, and display the most advanced information the league has to offer on their own league website. Unlike the MLB and NFL, where advanced analysis lives in a far off corner of the Internet, the NBA has chosen give voice to progressive thought and new perspectives. Kudos NBA. Enough on that. The main purpose of this article is to look at one metric in a particular that SportVU has produced:  assist opportunities per game. Assist opportunities per game (AOPG) is defined as “Potential assists: Passes by a player to a teammate in which the teammate attempts a shot, and if made, would be an assist.” AOPG allows for a better idea of a player’s true talent when it comes to his play-making ability. Not all players have the opportunity to be on the Heat who shoot 52% from the field, which allows their players to rack up assist totals, as opposed to Kyrie Irving’s Cavaliers, who have a 41 FG% this year.  When I first saw the AOPG stat, my first thought wasn’t “who creates the most assist opportunities per game?” No, it was, “which player has the highest percent of their assist opportunities converted to assists?” This reaction probably has to do with a Fantasy Basketball perspective, but it helped me find a valuable insight. Below are the players that convert the highest percent of their assist opportunities into assists (cAST%): PlayerAST PGAOPGcAST% Dwyane Wade (MIA)5.27.966% Lance Stephenson (IND)57.666% Tim Duncan (SAS)3.55.465% Shelvin Mack (ATL)3.65.664% Andre Iguodala (GSW)5.89.462% Arron Afflalo (ORL)4.87.862% Stephen Curry (GSW)8.814.760% Mario Chalmers (MIA)58.360% Chris Paul (LAC)12.821.759% Nicolas Batum (POR)5.39.158% Luol Deng (CHI)46.958% Tony Wroten (PHI)3.25.558% Michael Carter-Williams (PHI)7.613.457%...

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