Fantasy Fatcast Podcast: Mock Tool, Mock Draft and Mock Gonos

Aug 13

Fantasy Fatcast Podcast: Mock Tool, Mock Draft and Mock Gonos

Just before tonight’s Fantasy Fatcast podcast, my computer decided to restart, with 11 updates. (I don’t need the lectures, IT guys.) So Tresky and Emack flew solo … together. They had a caller from Chicago, Joel Henard, ask some Fantasy questions about Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and second-year wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who Emack is particularly fond of in the later rounds. While they talked, Gonos was trying to find the “any key” just to get back into his computer. Emack and Tresky also discussed E.J. Manuel, when Gonos’ phone was going in and out — despite being on through his computer! (It really wasn’t my day.) Tresky has actually watched Manuel several times in person, as FSU played against Brett’s Hurricanes each year. (Spoiler alert: He’s not a fan of Manuel.) Fantasy Fatcast Podcast New Sports Podcasts with Fantasy FatCast on BlogTalkRadio   We all held a quick mock draft using the Draft Wizard Mock Draft Simulator tool, which is absolutely awesome – and free! We set it up as a 12-team mock in a non-PPR league, with 16 rounds. And we chose to pick sixth in the order (you can choose wherever you want to pick, and you can even load in your league, to mock against your site’s...

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Position Depth: How deep is QB, RB, WR, TE, DST and K?

Aug 12

Position Depth: How deep is QB, RB, WR, TE, DST and K?

I listen to a lot of podcasts. I listen to these podcasts to pass the time and fill my head with information while I go through the monotony of everyday tasks: cooking, cleaning, driving, and doing the dishes. For me listening to podcasts is a passive activity, which allows me to gain the mental stimulation one derives from being in a conversation, without actually participating in a conversation. On one of the podcasts I listen to, I heard a pundit proclaim that analysts in the Fantasy community have gone overboard with “running back is shallow/get your running backs early” mantra. And, I thought, have we? The point of this article is to look at the position depth in Fantasy Football and answer the question, have we gone too far with the running back mantra? How can we analyze position depth? As way a to explain a difficult concept, allow me to develop a metaphor. Say, Derek and Ryan each hook up five girls in one week. We will use the classic one-to-ten scale as a way to ascribe value to the appearance of the ten girls. On average, the physical appearance of the girls Derek swoons is on par with the girls that Ryan attracts; the mean appearance of both sets of girls is five. But, average does not tell you the whole story. At face value the girls Derek and Ryan have hooked up with over the last week appear to be of the same stock, but the standard deviation of the girls Derek hooked up with is higher than the standard deviation of the girls Ryan hooked up with. Standard deviation is the measure of how spread out a data point is from a data set’s average; the more spread apart the data, the higher the standard deviation. Put another way, the girls that Ryan hooks up with are closer to fives than the girls Ryan hooks up with. Let’s look at the chart: We will skip the fundamental debate of “which group is better,” because it is a matter of preference,* and it is not relevant to this conversation.  What is not a matter of preference is that, if you were to take a girl out of...

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Sophomore Slump for 2,000-Yard Rushers? Not a Chance…

Aug 11

Sophomore Slump for 2,000-Yard Rushers? Not a Chance…

One of the biggest questions on Fantasy owners’ minds this year is, “Will Adrian Peterson come close to another 2,000 yards this year?” Let’s take a deep breath and realize that only seven players in the history of the NFL have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season. And no one has ever done it twice, much less in back-to-back seasons. I think we can assume that Peterson will not repeat this rare accomplishment. So how will A.P. follow up his 2,000-yard season? 2,000-yard Rushers and the Year After Let’s take a look at the other six guys and how 2,000-yard rushers did in the follow-up season, and then I will tell you what I think. O.J. Simpson For many readers of this article, O.J. was a famous athlete that was involved in one of the most publicized murder trials in the history of the United States. But prior to his career in sports broadcasting and acting, The Juice was an amazing running back in the NFL. In 1973 as a member of the Buffalo Bills, he rushed for 2,003  yards, becoming the first running back to ever break the 2,000-yard mark. The most impressive part of this feat is that in 1973 the Bills played a 14-game season. He averaged a mind boggling 6.0 yards per attempt, and he would have easily been the No. 1 overall draft pick in any Fantasy Football draft in the summer of 1974 — if they played back then. In 1974, O.J. followed this amazing season with only 1,125 rushing yards. And I know your next question, fellow Fantasy nerd, how many touchdowns did he have? A paltry three rushing touchdowns. Yikes. O.J. did go on to have a great season in 1975 gaining a little over 1,800 yards, but he never quite got back to his ’73 performance. As a matter of fact, he was out of the league six years later. But understand one thing about O.J.’s amazing season — the next five guys we are going to look at all did it in a 16-game season. Eric Dickerson I wasn’t old enough to watch O.J. carry the pigskin, but I did get to see Dickerson. I grew up in...

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5 Simple Rules for Winning Your Fantasy Draft

Aug 08

5 Simple Rules for Winning Your Fantasy Draft

I formulated a list in which I believe is crucial in winning your Fantasy draft. Some of these techniques and suggestions may be obvious or bizarre, but I believe it is a set of rules to help guide any Fantasy Football owner to success. With my analysis from past seasons and noted tendencies, I’ve taken a look at this year’s rankings and I hope to help make your Fantasy Football draft easier. So let’s get started. Winning Your Fantasy Draft   1. NEVER draft a kicker or defense until the final two rounds. This is a rule that has been said numerous times, yet in every league — someone breaks it. The No. 1 reason to wait on kickers and defenses is that there is always a steal available at another position in the last few rounds of drafts. For example, Randall Cobb last season, and Arian Foster three seasons ago. If you were lucky enough to draft either of these players, you were probably lucky enough to play in some Fantasy playoffs. The difference between the No. 1 kicker and the 10th kicker is a small number that will not affect your standings. It’s plain and simple — just don’t touch kickers and defenses until the end.   2. Do not reach for a quarterback. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely be gone in the first 25 picks of your draft, yet guys like Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, and Robert Griffin III won’t be drafted until at least pick No. 60 and beyond. By adding three or four players at other positions, and waiting on a quarterback, you are ultimately improving your team at spots with less depth. The difference between Rodgers and Griffin last year was just 60 points over the season, less than four points per game. If we can grab good players in the first four rounds at wideout and running back, waiting on a quarterback is too easy. The beauty of it is that people believe quarterbacks are the end all be all, so waiting on a quarterback is the value play. Depth is the key, which leads into my next topic.   3. Avoid running back tandems! I know this sounds almost...

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Top 30 NFL Fantasy Football Rookies for 2013

Aug 07

Top 30 NFL Fantasy Football Rookies for 2013

The NFL Draft is behind us, training camps are around the corner, and now we can step back and look at rankings for the top NFL Fantasy Football Rookies for 2013. Last year’s set of rookies was one of the best in NFL history, so it’s going to be interesting to see what this group will do in direct comparison. So this piece is going to take shape all offseason as news hits, rosters develop and injuries occur. Dynasty owners are hungry for this information now, since the rookie draft is pretty much their big day every season. But yearly owners are checking these rankings out also, especially after a record-breaking Fantasy Football Rookie season that saw the most rookie quarterbacks land in the top 12 at season’s end, as well as three rookie running backs end up scoring enough points to land them among the top 10 rookies over the past decade. 2013 Rankings: Top 60 Overall QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST Rookie Rankings: Top 30 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE   Top 30 Fantasy Football Rookies For 2013   1. Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh With Steelers offensive coordinator calling the Michigan State product a three-down back, Bell has to get the nod for the top spot among rookie running backs (as well as the top spot among Fantasy Football rookies for 2013). 2. Montee Ball, RB, Denver If Ball wins the starting job (he’ll need to pass protect MUCH better than Hillman did), he’ll face defenses structured to stop the pass pretty much the entire game. Fantasy owners should pick up the Ball and run with it. (patent pending) 3. Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay I initially had Lacy as the leader of the RBs among the top Fantasy Football rookies for 2013. But as reports come out that his toe surgery from a few months ago, and his general attitude, scared some owners off, I’m dialing down my expectations, too. Plus, the Packers selected Johnathan Franklin a little later. 4. Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati This was a pick many had expected to see, as the Bengals found a fast complement to BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Bernard has drawn...

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2013 Fantasy Football Rookie WR Rankings

Aug 07

2013 Fantasy Football Rookie WR Rankings

The 2013 Fantasy Football Rookie WR Rankings aren’t exciting and spectacular, filled with superstar college wide receivers like we had in recent years. In 2012, we were all atwitter over the arrival of Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon joining Jacksonville. And the year before that, we had Georgia’s A.J. Green having us drool with anticipation. But we were let down a bit in 2012, with no wide receiver catching more than 70 passes or 1,000 yards. Colts rookie WR T.Y. Hilton was the top dog puppy, but mostly because he caught seven touchdown passes from Andrew Luck. While there were just three rookies among the top 50 wide receivers in Fantasy Football by season’s end, it wasn’t that bad of a season overall for this class. But the 2013 class of rookie quarterbacks ranked as the best ever, and the 2013 class of rookie running backs has three of the best rookie RBs from the past 11 years. So the 2013 class of rookie wide receivers seems like a huge disappointment because of the success of the other two positions.   History of Rookie Wide Receivers To get a little perspective on rookie wide receivers, we looked back at the past 22 seasons to see how many rookies stood out in each year. Notice that Kendall Wright, considered one of the top rookie wide receivers entering the 2012 season, didn’t catch 70 passes, or reach 700 receiving yards or catch seven touchdown passes. (Only the wide receivers with at least 70 catches OR 1,000 yards or 7 touchdown catches are shown.) 2012 Justin Blackmon, JAC – 64-865-5 Josh Gordon, CLE – 50-805-5 T.Y. Hilton, IND – 50-861-7 2011 A.J. Green, CIN – 65 catches-1,057 yards-7 TDs Julio Jones, WR, ATL – 54-959-8 Torrey Smith, BAL – 50-841-7 2010 Mike Williams, TB – 65-964-11 2009 Austin Collie, IND – 60-676-7 2008 Eddie Royal, DEN – 91-980-5 2007 Dwayne Bowe, KC – 70-995-5 2006 Marques Colston, NO – 70-1,038-8 2005 – 2004 Michael Clayton, TB – 80-1,193-7 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – 58-780-8 Roy Williams, DET – 54-817-8 Lee Evans, BUF – 48-843-9 2003 Anquan Boldin, BAL – 101-1,377-8 2002 Donte Stallworth, NO – 74-894-2 2001 Chris Chambers, MIA – 48-883-7...

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2013 Fantasy Football Rookie RB Rankings

Aug 07

2013 Fantasy Football Rookie RB Rankings

Checking the 2013 Fantasy Football Rookie RB Rankings is always a good idea, especially throughout training camp. Unfortunately, most Fantasy Football owners will be looking for a player like Doug Martin and Trent Richardson, only to be disappointed they took a rookie runner higher than the third round in their draft. It’s true, last year’s rookie class ranked among the best ever, with Martin, Richardson, and Alfred Morris ranking among the best rookie RBs in the past 20 years. Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson played so well as rookie quarterbacks, the Class of 2012 has to be considered the best rookie class for Fantasy Football in NFL history!   History of Rookie Running Backs Before we look forward to the 2013 Fantasy Football Rookie RB Rankings, we should first look back at recent years – and some not-so-recent years. First, I want to compare the ADP (Average Draft Position) with Fantasy Football points. Below is a list of the highest drafted rookie RB in each season (dating back to 2002) and the eventual highest scoring rookie RB from that season. The players in bold indicate the highest rookie running back drafted ended up being the highest-scoring rookie RB in Fantasy that season.The ADP numbers were taken from MyFantasyLeague.com. 2002 Highest ADP: 4.08 William Green, CLE | Best RB: 5.08 Clinton Portis, DEN 2003 Highest ADP: 7.02 Onterrio Smith, MIN | Best RB: Domanick Williams, HOU 2004 Highest ADP: 4.05 Kevin Jones, DET | Best RB: Kevin Jones, DET 2005 Highest ADP: 4.12 Cadillac Williams, TB | Best RB: Cadillac Williams, TB 2006 Highest ADP: 3.01 Reggie Bush, NO | Best RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC 2007 Highest ADP: 4.12 Adrian Peterson, MIN | Best RB: Adrian Peterson, MIN 2008 Highest ADP: 4.04 Darren McFadden, OAK | Best RB: Matt Forte, CHI 2009 Highest ADP: 6.05 Knowshon Moreno, DEN | Best RB: Knowshon Moreno, DEN 2010 Highest ADP: 1.10 Ryan Mathews, SD | Best RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB 2011 Highest ADP: 5.07 Mark Ingram, NO | Best RB: DeMarco Murray, DAL 2012 Highest ADP: 3.05 Trent Richardson, CLE | Best RB: Doug Martin, TB Over the past 11 NFL seasons, the highest drafted rookie running back scored the...

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