Interrogate the Industry No. 13: Jennifer Millman
Week 3 was great for my Fantasy squads (I know, I know NO ONE CARES) and I was able to get an interrogation of Jennifer Millman from Rotoexperts.com making it even better. I have been a follower of Jen for a while now on Twitter, and of her work on Roto Experts which is top notch. If you have never heard of the treacherous and terrifying place that is “Twitter Jail”, or if you are curious as to what it is like, just ask Jen! She frequents the prison herself, likely weekly, thanks to her responding to all of your “Start/Sit” questions. If you don’t follow her already get on it @JMillmanRX and if you have questions you can ask, but check her timeline first they may have been asked already…..about 20 times 🙂 Also be sure to read her posts if you don’t already it is worth your time, and moolah.
Ok, Week 4 is around the corner, and starts tonight so set your lineups, get ready for the Bye Weeks and good luck. Feel free to check out my Weekly rankings on Fantasypros.com and fakepigskin.com. This week in my pigskin post I discuss percentages, and probability of making the playoffs if you get off to a dreadful start. If you are 0-3 your chances are very slim. If you happen to lose Week 4 and fall to 0-4 *Gulp* you are in trouble. Like 3 percent chance of making the playoffs kind of trouble. Not very good chances… unless you are in an All-Play + Head to Head league of course where it may not matter as much. Not sure what I am talking about? I will be writing soon about this new favorite format of mine in Fantasy Football, so keep your eyes peeled.
Ok, enough about that, let’s get to the juicy interview shall we?
Interrogate the Industry: Jennifer Millman
1. Everyone got their Fantasy Industry start somewhere. Talk about yours as brief or detailed as you like. If possible include ups and downs, others in the industry who helped?
I was born into Jets season tickets (my family has had them since 1968), so fantasy football – the chance to build a team that might actually win something – was a natural evolution for me. My boyfriend introduced me to it about five or six years ago and it took off. I’m now at about 16 teams, 10 of them dynasty. I never thought I’d use Twitter (who wants to hear about so-and-so going to the bathroom or the grocery store) but I found it an ideal outlet for my burgeoning fantasy football passion. I got connected to RotoExperts a few years ago, started writing a weekly column for them and doing a weekly guest segment on their Sirius XM Fantasy show during the season, and things have continued to move from there. There haven’t been any downs to speak of – just ups. But I do have a day job.
2. Do you partake in Daily Fantasy Sports? If so, can you see them eventually dominating the industry?
They call daily fantasy the new “poker.” I like poker. I got introduced to DFS at the end of the 2012 season, did really well and spent way too much on it the following season. Now I dabble a bit – it adds a different element to the game, a different strategy. Depth wins championships, depth is based on sleepers — and finding the player who’s going to go off (i.e. Allen Hurns Week 1) that few others will start wins daily games. There’s a mathematical strategy to it that I for sure haven’t quite gotten down yet, but people make a living off this stuff. Will it eventually dominate the industry? No — it’d be too frustrating for a more “seasonal player.” But will it take off like the online poker industry did? Already has — and will continue to keep growing. You’ll have casual players and hard core players, just like you do in redraft leagues. Difference is the casual player in a redraft league has a better shot at winning than in a daily fantasy game.
Chillpony Note: I will plug SKYLLZONE.COM here for Daily Fantasy Sports. It is easily my new favorite site, it is completely free and it is a quick snake draft format. Jump aboard, what have you got to lose? 5 minutes??
3. You provide a ton of Start/Sit advice on the Twitter machine. I do as well, but nowhere near the level of yourself. Do you ever find yourself saying “Oh crap. I told @ johnnyboy321 to start Michael Floyd today”? Any pangs of regret or elation?
Of course there’s regret when you tell someone to start a player over a player that goes off. For me, it was harder in the beginning. I still get those pangs, but I get over them. People are coming to us for advice and we do the best we can. Bottom line, as long as we’re making more right calls than wrong ones, we’re doing a good job.
4. Who would you rather have ROS? Arian Foster, Doug Martin or Eddie Lacy?
People are getting way too panicked about Lacy. He had two rough matchups early in the Seahawks and the Jets, and the concussion didn’t help. Eleven of his 14 matchups going forward are cake for an RB — Lions/Bears/Vikings/Falcons, etc. Fantasy owners who sold him off the first two games will be sorry when it starts to go off. He averaged 4.1 YPC on 284 carries, had 1100+ yards and 11 TDs rushing as a rookie – -and he missed two of the 16 games due to injury. The Bucs have issues beyond Martin’s injury. Foster is always teetering on the edge of injury and after two good first games is questionable with a hamstring injury for Week 3. I’ll take Eddie Lacy ROS, easy.
5. I think it is safe to say after Week 3 if you are 0-3 you need to worry about your teams chances. Do you agree, and if not, when do you think it is time to worry and why?
I was just talking about this with someone. He said 0-3 is when you can’t come back. I always get freaked at out 0-1, 0-2 … whatever it is, none of us like to lose games and we worry about each one we drop, whether it’s in the playoffs or game two of the regular season. You can make all the right decisions in fantasy, mathematically, and still lose – because there are so many elements of this sport that are unpredictable. Game scores have an element of unpredicability (we knew the Falcons would most likely beat the Bucs, even without Roddy, but did we think it’d be 56-14, largely because of their defense? no one started Atlanta D week 3!), as do player injuries — and standings in fantasy leagues reflect that. It’s better not to worry at all — when it’s over, it’s over, but we’ve seen a lot of NFL teams come back from huge deficits late (ask Andrew Luck), and fantasy owners, depending on strength of division/other teams, can do the same.
6. Do you believe it is possible to be in “too many” leagues in Fantasy Sports?
I didn’t initially. I do now. I’m in about 17 – 12 of them dynasty, which don’t end with the NFL season. It’s difficult to keep on top of waivers to the same degree in each league. I’m embarrassed to say I’ve even started inactive players in some lineups — mostly in the non money leagues (about 4 of mine are), but I’ve screwed up in the money ones once or twice too. That’s what you know you’re in too many. Plus you can’t trade with the same veracity.
7. Are there any Fantasy Football league formats you heavily favor over others? If so why? Any new formats you think need more attention?
I’m in leagues of all different formats — standard/PPR, TE flex .. 1-4 TE flex, 1.5 TE PPR, 2 QB, IDP full roster (draft about 55 players), partial IDP (use 3). Basics standard leagues frustrate me sometimes because this has become a PPR world, but those have their own strategy, too. I like playing in a variety — keeps me knowing all sides of different players/teams.
8. If you had to write an episode script for any television show which one would it be? Any plot ideas?
No idea, but we could start with rewriting “The League” to actually be about fantasy football.
Chillpony Note: I agree with this, however seeing Jenny get attacked by a monkey while wearing a frog suit was about as good as it gets.