2015-2016 Fantasy Basketball Rookies Preview

Sep 19

2015-2016 Fantasy Basketball Rookies Preview

This year’s draft class of rookies is loaded full of NBA talent and every one is excited to get in on the action in Fantasy Basketball. The analysts (read fortune tellers) at FiveThirtyEight had this to say about his year’s group: “While there figure to be fewer future superstars available this year than in 2014’s rookie crop, it might be a banner year for solid, above-average players. Even taking into account the superior star power of a year ago, the model projects this year’s class to contain about 10 percent more players who grade out as a future NBA starter or better.” Even so, drafting rookies in fantasy basketball redraft leagues has always been a dangerous proposition. Consider the output of last year’s rookie class as provided by Fasketball.com, which was actually extremely productive: Only Nerlens Noel managed to crack the top 100 in standard leagues, even though Wiggins played all 82 at a staggering 36.2 minutes per game. The issue is not that these players won’t ever be great, it’s that making it big as rookie requires more stars to align than there are cards in an astrology tarot deck. Opportunity, luck, physique, and timing all play a factor however most rookies will still be wildly inefficient and turnover prone, destroying any value they do create. Check out Fasketball.com’s Fantasy Basketball tools, like their real-time injury updates, customizable, projections, and their Head-to-Head schedule grid.   2015-2016 Fantasy Basketball Rookies So who should you draft and when? Here is our advice on how to handle these young prospects this season and into the future.   Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves The thing that makes KAT a future fantasy basketball stud is his lack of weaknesses. He blocks shots, he shoots, he is efficient, and he is already an exceptional passer for a big man. The biggest limiting factor for him will be the log jam in the Timberwolves front court as he will be competing for minutes with NBA players Gorgui Dieng, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Garnett. And that’s not even mentioning young prospects Adreian Payne and Anthony Bennett. Given what he showed in summer league and the fact he was a number 1 overall pick, he should still be extremely productive even in around 25 minutes per game. Don’t reach too early but if...

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Fantasy Basketball Projections: Top 69 Player by Basketball References Simple Projection System

Oct 23

Fantasy Basketball Projections: Top 69 Player by Basketball References Simple Projection System

In this post we will discuss Fantasy Basketball projections for the 2013-14 season. As I discussed in my last post about Fantasy Baseball ranking based off of the 2014 Steamer projections, I love rankings based off of quantitative analysis. Rankings that take a statistical approach to value ascription lack the histrionic overtones and biases that are present throughout most of the fantasy fodder online, and they provide market inefficiencies that owners can take advantage of when drafting. While there are very few quantitative NBA projection systems, compared to the amount of MLB projection systems, there are two that I found. Perhaps the most well known, Kevin Pelton’s SCHOENE projection system is available to ESPN Insiders, and I succumbed to the forces of the evil empire and subscribed to a 30 day free trial to procure the necessary information to write this article. Alas, ESPN Insider does not provide SCHOENE projections in an exportable format: BOOO! The second NBA Projection system that is widely available is the Basketball Reference Simple Projection System (SPS).  The SPS takes into consideration playing time, aging curves, and the last three years of player performance. Most importantly, the SPS has been proven to be accurate in its projections, and slightly more effective than the SCHOENE projection system. I took the SPS projections, translated them into fantasy value for a standard eight category rotisserie league—points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, three pointers, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage—and then weighted those projections with the total amount of minutes ESPN projects that player to play; the SPS weights all stats on a Per-36 minute performance rate, and you get weird results when you don’t take into consideration the amount of playing time a player will realistically be on the court. For example, Manu Ginobili projects to as a top twenty player when you don’t take into consideration the brief amount of minutes he plays. Here are the results of the Simple Projections System (Note these rankings do not have positional adjustments weighted into their projections, so all the centers need to get a huge boost): RkPlayer3PTRBASTSTLBLKPTSFG%FT%tMINwzSCR 1Kevin Durant0.920.400.520.500.513.681.714.46 3,080 20.35 2LeBron James0.150.482.021.360.023.382.940.50 2,865 16.17 3Chris Paul0.28-0.933.873.97-1.111.320.662.37 2,622 14.21 4James Harden1.44-0.651.151.36-0.622.640.153.45 2,902 13.46 5Stephen Curry2.73-0.931.961.36-0.952.190.401.89 2,865 12.89 6Kyrie...

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Fantasy Basketball First Round Preview: Just The Tip

Oct 10

Fantasy Basketball First Round Preview: Just The Tip

“Basketball Jones, I got a Basketball Jones Got a Basketball Jones, oh baby, oo-oo-ooo!” It’s time for a Fantasy Basketball First Round Preview. It is that time of year again when Yeti Vedder has something to look forward to during the week. His Red Sox were left for dead in June and with the NFL only on three nights a week, it leaves me yearning for my sports fix!!! The NBA is back and I LOVE the NBA, but especially Fantasy Basketball. Fantasy Basketball always has some new dynamic and this year is no different. Whether it be Dwight Howard, Steve Nash, and Kobe Bryant’s Fantasy numbers taking a hit due to playing together or this fresh rookie class that looks like it could have a major impact on the season, this year will be a doozy for all of you NBA stat heads out there! I went to my man David Gonos, and I said, “Big Dave (even though he is half my size) you want Yeti Vedder on that Fantasy Basketball wall! You need Yeti Vedder on that Fantasy Basketball wall!” Dave simply said he doesn’t have a Fantasy Basketball wall, but that I could definitely spit some hot fire about Fantasy Basketball for him. Over the next few weeks, leading up to the opening tip, and a little game called “Just the Tip,” I will be giving you some of Yeti Vedder’s sweetest Fantasy Basketball advice. I will start with a Fantasy Basketball First Round Preview. If you are doing a 12-team league like myself, this is actually a preview of the first two rounds of your draft.   Fantasy Basketball First Round Preview   PICK No. 1: Lebron James – SF- Miami This is a no brainer. It is King James’ Fantasy world and we are all just living in it. I am not a fan of Bron Bron, but Fantasy Basketball-wise, he is simply a beast! I won’t be surprised if Dwyane Wade takes a step back this year, which only means that Lebron will have to take another step forward, which would make his numbers breaking all time Fantasy records! PICK No. 2:  Kevin Durant – SF – Oklahoma City The best young player in...

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