What the Past Tells Us About Julio Jones’ Future

Last week I released a 1589 page fantasy football resource that I call The Crop Report (in an homage to the great Eddie Murphy movie Trading Places).  The Crop Report is full of data and graphs for the key fantasy football positions of QB, RB, WR, and TE.

While a lot of the data and graphs in The Crop Report are meant to satisfy the cravings of even the most die hard Fantasy Football junkies, the signature resource – the player comparables pages – are meant to appeal to fantasy football players of all types.

The idea for player comparables is pretty simple.  Take a guy that played last year, look at his statistics and physical measurements, then try to find players in the recent past that were similar to that player.

Let’s look at Julio Jones to see what I’m talking about here and how player comparables could be great for figuring out who to target in Fantasy Football.

First, here is Julio Jones’ 2011 season, along with his physical measurements.

Player

SEAS

AGE

Wt

Ht

GMS

TRGS

RECS

YDS

TDS

FPOP/T

YPT

YPR

FPs

Julio Jones

2011

22

220

75

12

7.9

4.5

79.5

0.7

0.52

10

17.7

12.1

 

In the 12 games that Jones appeared, he caught about 80 yards per game, 0.7 TDs per game, averaged about 10 yards per target and almost 18 yards per reception.  You probably aren’t familiar with my statistic that I call “Fantasy Points Over Par”, but it’s an efficiency measure.  It measures how many Fantasy points above or below average the player scored if we look at each play based on field position.  For instance, a target from the 10 yard line is worth quite a bit more on average than a target from the 50 yard line.  FPOP just measures whether a player did better or worse than league average with each target.

Now we can find statistical seasons that were similar to Jones’ 2011, and we’ll look primarily at players that were similar height, weight and age to Jones.  If we do it right, all of the receivers we look at should be pretty close to Jones on most measures.

Player

SEAS

AGE

Wt

Page 1 of 8 |

  • NFL Draft History 101-- InfographicNFL Draft History 101-- Infographic
  • 2013 Fantasy Football All-Reliable Team: Running Backs2013 Fantasy Football All-Reliable Team: Running Backs
  • Make Your Fantasy Trade Offer Even Tastier … Like With A Free PizzaMake Your Fantasy Trade Offer Even Tastier … Like With A Free Pizza