Fantasy ADP Can Map Out Your First Four Picks

Don’t you wish you were one of those card-counters in Vegas that are so good they get kicked out of casinos? Imagine if you were so good at Fantasy Football – your league kicked you out! … Man, your friends would totally ostracize you and stop speaking to you – that  would be awesome!!! Unfortunately, the only Cards we can count in Fantasy live in Arizona. But, we can use some similar tactics as we prepare for our Fantasy Football drafts. We can use Average Draft Position, or Fantasy ADP, to try and get a clear understanding of what the draft will look like. And we can reverse engineer the whole thing to see which teams looked best after a mock draft.

What we’re going to do is look at most of the draft options for each of the first four rounds to see how they play out. Then, we’ll judge them against each other to see what we think made the best team – and that can be our strategy going into our drafts!

 

Average Draft Position Per Round

The following rounds are broken down by position. The positions are listed by their Fantasy ADP rank. So in the second round, under running backs, you’ll see Trent Richardson as the first running back, with Marshawn Lynch the sixth running back. All that means is that the Browns rookie RB was the first RB taken in the second round in ADP, and Lynch was the last RB taken in the second round in ADP.

If a position is empty, then Fantasy ADP suggests no players from that position are taken in that particular round. (So in Round 3, there are no quarterbacks or tight ends expected to be drafted unless one falls or an owner reaches.)

Also, bolded names indicate players that are expected to be taken with one of the first two picks in that round, according to Fantasy ADP. That means you’ll likely need the top pick in that round to land one of these two guys.

ROUND ONE

QB: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers
RB: Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
WR: Calvin Johnson
TE:

ROUND TWO

QB: Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton
RB: Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings
TE: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski

ROUND THREE

QB:
RB: Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
WR: Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
TE:

ROUND FOUR

QB: Michael Vick
RB: Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
WR: Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas
TE:

 

Mix-and-Match Draft Possibilities

As you look through these sets of players, understand that you’re just looking at tiers of players that only a portion of which is expected to be available to you in any given round. It’s very possible there is some combination of draft choices that I didn’t list, but I’m pretty sure I got 95-percent of them. Understand that I gave more weight to the fact that an owner would likely want to have two running backs on their roster after four rounds more than any other mix of positions. In some cases, I allowed that someone would want to skip taking a QB and/or a TE in the first four rounds.

Here’s how you look at this list: The number indicates the round, and the position next to the number is the position you’d take in that round. The players are from the list above, sorted by the round they’re ranked at currently in ADP.

 

Going With a Quarterback First

1-QB Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees,
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

For this first sample, we’d take a QB first, then RB1, then our RB2, and finally a WR1. We could end up with any of the following teams.

• Tom Brady, Jamaal Charles, Darren Sproles, Dez Bryant
• Aaron Rodgers, Steven Jackson, Fred Jackson, Miles Austin
• Drew Brees, Trent Richardson, Michael Turner, Hakeem Nicks

Remember, the bolded players are the top picks in those rounds, so it’s doubtful you’d get more than two on your team.

This exercise is to help you see the different possibilities when you change up which positions you plan on drafting in each round.

Here are some more of the draft possibilities when you take a quarterback with your first-round pick:

1-QB Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees,
2-WR Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

1-QB Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees,
2-TE Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

1-QB Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees,
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

In looking at these four sets of draft possibilities, I really like the second overall set the best (including the one I discussed above), where you would draft, in order, a QB-WR-RB-RB. The second-round is just ugly this year, and I really like the running backs you can get in the third round, especially Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin.

 

Going With a Running Back First

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-WR Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-QB Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-QB Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-TE Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-TE Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-QB Michael Vick

1-RB Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-QB Michael Vick

There are definitely way more possibilities here.

My top two groups are the first two groups, either RB-RB-WR-WR, or RB-WR-RB-WR. I think this depends more on where you are drafting in the rounds. For instance, if you’re drafting early in Round 1, then you come away better with the RB-WR-RB-WR set.

In general, though, I think I like the RB-RB-WR-WR set best overall, which means a team that might look like this: Matt Forte, Trent Richardson, Wes Welker and Miles Austin. Richardson has climbed up the Fantasy ADP ladder to the top of the second round. We did a Mock Draft for 2014, and Richardson was the fourth overall pick in our “Fantasy” Fantasy mock draft of the future.

 

Going With a Wide Receiver First

The possibilities here are a little limited because Calvin Johnson is really the only wide receiver you should take in the first round. And you’ll have to do that in the middle of the round, which means you likely won’t get any of the bolded players below. Figure your team will consist of Megatron, and the middle players in each group.

1-WR Calvin Johnson
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

1-WR Calvin Johnson
2-WR Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

1-WR Calvin Johnson
2-TE Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

1-WR Calvin Johnson
2-QB Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-RB Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

1-WR Calvin Johnson
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-WR Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Victor Cruz
4-QB Michael Vick

1-WR Calvin Johnson
2-RB Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch
3-RB Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner
4-WR Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Miles Austin, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas

I’m not a fan of any of the teams with Vick at quarterback – not because I don’t like him, but it just seems to limit your team elsewhere. I also don’t like any of the second-round running backs working as your RB1. That pretty much means taking a QB or WR first overall is a bad idea in my clouded brain.

Although, I find the WR-WR-RB-RB pretty intriguing: Megatron and Greg Jennings, along with Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush. I don’t hate it!

 

Fantasy ADP Helps Figure Out Who To Draft First

The top game plans from each position above are as follows:

• First place: RB-RB-WR-WR
• Second place: WR-WR-RB-RB
• Third place: QB-WR-RB-RB
• Fourth place: RB-WR-RB-WR

If you have a middle-of-the-round pick, starting with a QB or a WR is definitely an option, but there are just so many good quarterbacks available in the middle rounds that you limit yourself by going QB first. If you go with Megatron, and you’re able to back him up with another great receiver in Round 2, you could still put together a strong RB duo, but you’ll most likely want to follow those up with another running back in Round 5.

Does any of this make sense? Do you feel like a card-counter yet? Has Fantasy ADP blown your mind?

Just like Raymond said, “I’m definitely not wearing my underwear.”