ProFootballMatchups – Best Week 11 NFL Bets

Welcome to the Week 11 of the NFL season and ProFootballMatchups.com picks of the week. This is where they’ll post their analysis of what they think are the best Week 11 NFL bets, helping you decide between the tough bets and the easy ones. Each week, they’ll post the top games of the week, usually along with their best Underdog Bet of the Week. There are only seven more weeks of the NFL regular season, so making the right wagers at online sportsbooks means more than ever!

 

Best Week 11 NFL Bets

Games of the Week: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens are coming off a statement victory over the Raiders, a team which the Steelers lost to earlier in the season. There has been a transformation in Baltimore from a smash mouth physical defense to a high octane hurry up offense. The offense has improved on their ability to hit on the big play as they are averaging 28.2 points and 354.1 yards per game. They feature a well-balanced attack, but the passing attack has been a strength averaging 249.2 yards per game. Due to injuries to key members and old age the Ravens D is not nearly as imposing unit, then they were a few years ago. The unit is allowing 21.8 points per game and is among the worst units in the NFL in yardage allowed, yielding 390.2 yards per game. The run defense has struggled allowing 132 yards per contest, which is interesting, since they are facing a three-headed monster in Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman.

wstera2 via CompfightThe Steelers have won four straight after getting off to a shaky start. Unfortunately, they will be without the services of offensive leader Big Ben, who is out with a separated shoulder and bruised/broken ribs. The offense will turn to Byron Leftwich to lead the offense, but I expect the Steelers will try and win this game the old fashioned way, with a ground and pound attack and quick strikes downfield. The offensive numbers do not apply with Big Ben out, but they will try and key on on the 103.8 rushing yards they are averaging a game, since the Ravens run defense has been suspect lately. The defense is among the best units statistically, but have struggled to create turn overs. The unit is allowing 265.7 total yards and 171.1 passing yards per game, both ranked #1 in the NFL. The unit has also been solid keeping teams out of the end zone only allowing 19.7 points per game.

The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and the Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against the AFC North. The under is 7-0 ATS in the Steelers last 7 home games.

ATS PREDICTION: Under 40.5

ATS Prediction: Small play on Pitt +3.5

 

Underdog of the Week: Cleveland Browns

The Browns are seeking their first win on the road, currently 0-4 in 2012 away from the Dog Pound. The defense has played hard despite a struggling and are allowing 23.4 points and 380.1 total yards matchup. The run defense has struggled of late since they are allowing 132.2 yards a game, but should be able to handle Felix Jones. The offense is full of young players, but they are talented and have started to play improved football. The running attack is physical, but is only averaging 89.2 yards for an offense that is averaging 312 yards per game. The youth is a big reason why the unit is scoring under 19 points a game.

The Cowboys aren’t exactly scaring people when playing in front of the locals, sporting a 1-2 home record. The offense has turned the ball over numerous times, which has been a major reason for the paltry 20.9 points per game. They are putting up impressive statistics though averaging 372.7 total yards and 287.3 passing yards per game. The defense has kept the Cowboys in almost every game this season, due to the bad situations they have been put in due to the costly turnovers. The defense is giving up 22.7 points and 318.8 total yards a game. The run defense may be in for a challenge facing such a physical back and may give up then the their season average of 105.2 yards per game.

The Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.

ATS Prediction: Browns +9.5

Check out PFM’s Picks of the Week!