Drafting the top Fantasy rookies in ADP is quite the gamble! Fantasy Football rookies are like the world’s grab bag — you could end up drafting a first-year player that ends up scoring 10 touchdowns as one of the best at his position. But, sometimes just as often, you could end up with a stinker that angers his head coach and gets buried on the depth chart. This is all part of the fun involved with Fantasy sports.
Obviously, rookies represent a high-reward investment in many cases, but depending on where you draft them, they don’t necessarily have to be high risks.
What I mean by that is –- if you draft a rookie wide receiver later in your draft, like say Rounds 11 or 12, you could get a boom-or-bust player at a low cost. But if you are looking at a first-year player that’s expected to be the featured tailback on his new offence, then it’s going to cost you an early round pick most likely. That’s certainly a high risk, and it rises the higher you select him.
Looking back over the past 17 NFL seasons, we can see which rookies were the top players entering Fantasy Football drafts, as well as their final rank at the end of the season. The question we’re going to answer is:
How Often Does the First Rookie Drafted (ADP) End Up Being the Top Fantasy Rookies By Season’s End?
Those that drafted Ezekiel Elliott in the first round took a huge gamble — the biggest gamble ever on a rookie player. It paid off, as you’ll see, and now Fantasy owners are looking at Leonard Fournette in a similar fashion.
But those owners in the previous two years that drafted Bishop Sankey in 2015 and Melvin Gordon in 2016 understand how devastating it might be to draft the top rookie that turns into a Fantasy turd.
I went back over the past 17 seasons and looked at the Average Draft Position in each year on MyFantasyLeague.com, and then I compared the stats to the Fantasy points scored by position per year over at FootballGuys.com for each year since 2000. These rankings and APD are for standard non-PPR Fantasy Football leagues only.
Zeke had one of the greatest rookie seasons in Fantasy Football history, rewarding those that took a HUGE gamble on him, as the highest-drafted rookie in Fantasy Football history! No other rookie has ever had a first-round ADP like Elliott.
Had Gurley not tore up his knee in his final season at Georgia (2014), he likely would have been the top rookie picked in Fantasy leagues — possibly with an ADP in the second round. Gordon was injured for much of the season, and he didn’t score his first NFL touchdown until his breakout Year 2.
Hill had about 350 more rushing yards than any other rookie running back last season, ranking 10th among all running backs. Sankey, meanwhile, finished as the 42nd-best running back, even though he was taken about four rounds earlier than Hill’s 11.05 ADP.
If you recall, this was a tricky draft season for rookie running backs since none were drafted in the first round for the first time in 40 years. But the second round was filled with guys like Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball and Giovani Bernard – the highest drafted running back. All four of those guys could have been the top rookie chosen, but on MFL, it happened to be Lacy, who was also dealing with fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin in the same backfield.
T-Rich had a good season (his only one so far), but it was Muscle Hamster that finished just behind Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson in total yards from scrimmage that year. Alfred Morris, a sleeper rookie of immense proportions, finished with the second-most Fantasy points for rookies. Also, Robert Griffin III came close to posting the best rookie season ever for a QB. Andrew Luck, of course, wasn’t too far behind.
Rather than a running back, it was a quarterback (Cam Newton) and a wide receiver (A.J. Green) that should have been the first rookies drafted in Fantasy leagues that year. Newton had the best rookie season ever by a Fantasy QB, and he finished just behind Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in Fantasy points.
Among tailbacks, Roy Helu barely outscored DeMarco Murray in Fantasy points, which is the last time that was ever said. Ingram finished in a Sankey-like 46th place among RBs.
Mathews was the 12th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, as he was supposed to be the “featured back in a high-powered offense” in San Diego. Sound familiar, Melvin Gordon? C.J. Spiller was the consolation prize, but Jahvid Best broke out early in that season if you’ll recall. Jahvid finished as the “Best” rookie, ranked 23rd in Fantasy points.
It’s strange that Moreno finished the year as the top rookie running back, looking back now. The other rookie running backs from that season? LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Rashad Jennings and Shonn Greene. Even stranger, the second-highest rookie getting drafted that season was Arizona’s Chris Wells, from Ohio State. Yoiks.
Without question, this was the greatest rookie class for running backs in NFL Draft history. Look at the rookies drafted in 2008:
I’m guessing the Raiders wished they could get that draft pick back.
After seeing the 2008 Class of RBs, the 2007 version seems boring, but know that Peterson and Lynch are still kicking as top-five picks in Fantasy Football, eight years later. Of the above group from 2008, only Charles and Forte have the same bragging rights as A.P. and Beast Mode.
Peterson was taken, on average, just one pick behind Lynch in Round 4 that season.
Bush entered the year as one of the most talked about rookie running backs in Fantasy history, after the Texans chose to go against the grain and controversially take DE Mario Williams with the first overall pick instead of Bush.
Interestingly, 2006 was the first year for Bush in New Orleans, along with quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton. (Doug Marrone was the offensive coordinator!)
MJD went on to be a Fantasy beast for several seasons, and now he’s a Fantasy Football playing beast, complete with a show he hosts on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel.
Do you remember when Bucs head coach Jon Gruden started Williams’ career with 88 carries in his first three games? He finished with 1,178 rushing yards, by far the best effort of his career. Auburn teammate Ronnie Brown would end up with the better career, but not by as much as you’d think.
Jones was fantastic at Virginia Tech, with 1,647 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns in his final junior season. With
McGahee was actually drafted with the 23rd overall pick by the Bills – in 2003! A knee injury in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl was thought to have killed his draft value, but super-agent Drew Rosenhaus still got him drafted in the first round.
Ahhh, who doesn’t love the story of the Whizzinator? In 2005, Smith was caught at an airport carrying dried urine and a device called, “The Whizzinator,” which was a kit that helped people pass drug tests. Then he was suspended after a third violation of the drug abuse policy in 2005. That was the end of his NFL career. He just pissed it away, so to speak.
Boldin, meanwhile, was the top Fantasy rookie of any position that year, and his Week 1 introduction to the NFL is still one for the ages: 217 receiving yards – an NFL record for a debut game.
Texans RB Domanick Williams scored the most points among rookie running backs, however, before he changed his name to Domanick Davis, who eventually faded away.
It’s painful to think about how many times I gave Green, the Boston College tailback, another shot on my Fantasy teams. He was brutal on the field – and off, with arrests and substance abuse issues. He struggled with substance abuse from 2002 onwards and probably could have done with a visit to somewhere like Enterhealth to help him rid himself of the shackles of addiction and substance abuse. I see he is now a Christian and has become a motivational speaker, typically about forgiveness and overcoming struggles. Hopefully this means he has finally overcome his own issues.
Portis was being drafted in the fifth round also, about eight spots after Green. He would eventually follow Mike Shanahan to Washington, after the Broncos traded him for Champ Bailey.
Remember that Tomlinson was great at TCU, but Bennett was great coming out of Wisconsin, too. Tomlinson eventually proved to be one of the greatest Fantasy Football beasts of our generation, but Bennett did make the Pro Bowl in his sophomore season … so he’s got that going for him. Bennett reportedly ran a 4.13 40-yard dash at one point, second fastest behind Bo Jackson‘s 4.12.
Tomlinson would go on to be the No. 1 overall Fantasy pick in four consecutive seasons, from 2005-08.
It’s painful to look back and see how high Dayne was being drafted in Fantasy leagues, especially considering this was a Giants team that had Tiki Barber already on it!
Anderson was a fullback that played in Mike Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme in Denver – and he ended up dominating just like Terrell Davis and Olandis Gary did before him.
Well, I hope this little trip down memory lane was a fun one for you. When you go to pull the trigger on that Leonard Fournette pick in the second or third round, maybe you’ll think twice. Consider that over the past 17 seasons, the top rookie drafted ended up being the top Fantasy rookies in scoring just four times – 23.5 percent of the time. Give me middle or late-round rookies instead and I’ll be happy!
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