With the NFL season around the corner and information coming from all angles about how players and teams will produce, it is time to handicap NFL win totals. Instead of breaking down individual players for Fantasy purposes, I wanted to focus more on a team level, and take a look at the projected wins for teams entering the season.
Every year there are teams that surprise and disappoint, so figuring them out prior to the season provides an opportunity for seasoned bettors looking for long-term investments and the possibility of locking in profits. For in-depth betting tips, it is important that you read the advice offered by Betting News.
It also gives novice bettors some fun and easy-to-understand action for the entire season. The NFL betting market is built off of perception and storylines. The following eight teams all come with their fair share of public perception one way or another. I think the Vegas line on their NFL win totals can be exploited for your wallet’s pleasure. If you’re looking to raise the stakes and put money down on your favourite sports, check out pro sports handicapper site, Ghost Betting.
4 NFL Win Totals to Bet the OVER
As mentioned above, the NFL is all about perception. Teams heading into the season always get judged based on how they did the previous one. Even during the season, you will see the public loading up against teams that they think could never win.
It is difficult to put your money on the St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills or other cellar dwellers of the NFL. Fortunately, for people like me, going against the public in certain situations has provided much opportunity in the betting market. This is not to say the public majority always loses, but casinos are not built on winners and the sportsbooks know what they are doing. However, if you are trying to improve your chances of winning on your placed bets so you’re not within the majority that loses, you could look at odds services like you’re able to find by reading an Oddsmonkey Review or that of one offering similar odds services. This allows for the comparison of different sportsbooks that could all provide varying odds for identical bets.
St. Louis Rams – 6 wins
St. Louis hasn’t been relevant for a number of years now. They improved through the draft, will return a lot of injured players and they have a new head coach. This team has the potential for the biggest improvement in the NFL, which isn’t hard considering they only won twice last season.
According to BeyondtheBets.com, when it comes to betting NFL win totals, if a team is 6 or less, bet the over. Since 2002, teams with totals at 6 or less have posted an “over record” of 28-15-1 (.651). Another interesting stat to note is that teams who finished last in their division the previous year, rebound to go over the season win total. Bettors must not be afraid to back the bottom teams because these teams over the last nine years went over at a 62% clip.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6 wins
Now that the expectations have disappeared following a horrible season, this team has potential as they soar under the radar. A new voice in the locker room and some young talent can result in some wins.
In a division where everyone loves the other three teams, this one seems like a perfect fit to exploit public perception and scoop up a low total number. After having the third toughest schedule last year, the Bucs won’t face as many quality teams this year. The last four years they went, 4-12, 10-6, 3-13, 9-7. This team has been boom or bust and this year should follow the trend.
Kansas City Chiefs – 8 wins
With Jamaal Charles back from a season-ending knee injury, the Chiefs should beat their NFL win totals mark of eight.
The Chiefs fell off the map last year due to 54 starts lost to injury, including their QB and top two RBs. With key players on both sides of the ball returning, and offseason upgrades, I like a motivated team playing for their new coach.
Let’s not forget the Chiefs were one game away from a division tie to end last season. The AFC West is not a division that has a runaway winner. Couple this with an easier schedule and K.C. has a shot to return to the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys – 8½ wins
In a division with the Super Bowl champs, RGIII, and the highly touted Eagles, is it safe to say the Cowboys are actually not the center of attention? Last season, the Cowboys started 7-4 before faltering down the road. This season they finish with five of their final seven games at home, which will help them secure a playoff spot.
The odds say division champions (Giants) usually lose a couple extra games the following year (this will be explained below) and there is no way Michael Vick stays healthy the whole season, I feel Dallas is in a good spot entering this season.
4 NFL Win Totals to Bet the UNDER
When searching for information on the NFL win totals, the guys at BeyondtheBets.com kept showing up in relevant content. Another useful piece in relation to the NFL win totals was about defending division champs. They go over their season win totals only 43.5 percent of the time. I have two defending champions that I feel will follow suit.
All of these articles I reference, and numbers inside the win total bets help paint a picture. There is parity in the NFL and the perception of teams cannot be solely based on what the team has done the season before, or even the week before. Things change fast in the NFL, and since the public loves rooting for a good over, I found myself favoring what are most likely some very unpopular unders.
Denver Broncos – 8½ wins
Popular opinion on the Broncos this year is they must improve with the addition of Peyton Manning, right? However, the money in Vegas is telling a different story. When these totals were released the “under” on Denver was a favorite of the “sharp” bettors.
My reasoning for this under play is Denver faces one of the hardest schedules in league, including non-divisional games against Pittsburgh, Houston, New England, New Orleans and Baltimore. They were very fortunate in the injury department last season, only 21 starts lost. To me, they are an 8-8 team this year and this is if Peyton stays healthy the whole season.
Cincinnati Bengals – 8½ wins
I am actually down on the entire AFC North. Yes, this conference dominated on the defensive side of the ball last year (all four teams had top 10 defenses) and three teams made the playoffs. But they also benefited from cupcake schedules.
The Bengals will face an especially more difficult schedule, and I do not feel they can put back-to-back winning seasons together after going 9-7, 4-12, 10-6 and 4-11-1 the previous four. Looks like a pattern to me.
Atlanta Falcons – 9 wins
A team who hasn’t won less than nine games the past four years, and enters the season with high expectations, has a fishy opening win total number. I believe that Carolina and Tampa Bay will improve this year, and I think the Saints stay relevant. To me, this means that Atlanta will not meet those expectations.
Houston Texans – 10 wins
This will not be a very popular pick. With arguably the worst division in the NFL to compete with, Houston should breeze to a double-digit win season you would think. However,they loset DE Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans from their defense and they’ll have two new starters on the right side of the offensive line. (David Gonos is even recommending not to take RB Arian Foster with the No. 1 overall Fantasy pick.)
With proof that teams improve after lousy seasons, the division will not let them just walk away. Parlay this with difficult games outside of division and I don’t see this team having back-to-back double-digit wins.
Hopefully, these thoughts on the NFL win totals can do you some good this season! Good luck!
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