2012

Do You Dig Doug Martin or Trade Doug Martin?

Trade Doug Martin in Fantasy Football?

After being named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Month for October, Buccaneers RB Doug Martin went out in Week 9 and blew away Raiders defenders, his Fantasy Football owners and the opponents of said Fantasy Football owners. Doug Martin in Fantasy Football was suddenly a very hot commodity.

Let’s first take a quick look at how amazing Martin’s game against Oakland was in Week 9.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay

Nov. 4, 2012 – 25 carries, 251 yards, 4 TDs, 4 rec., 21 rec. yards

  • Martin was the second player in league history to run for over 250 yards while also running for four touchdowns (Denver’s Mike Anderson in 2000).
  • Those 251 rushing yards are the third-most by an NFL rookie in one game ever (Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray).
  • Through nine weeks, Martin was the highest-scoring Fantasy running back – with one more point than Arian Foster.
  • Martin came close to catching NFL single-game rushing leader Peterson (296 yards) exactly four years to the day that Peterson set the mark, on Nov. 4, 2007.
  • Comparing Martin’s day (51 points) to the best running back performances ever, from a Fantasy standpoint, he came in eighth. (Houston’s Billy Cannon had 330 yards from scrimmage and 5 total touchdowns (63 pts) on Week 13 of 1961).
  • Martin was the first player with three touchdown runs of 45 yards or more in one game.
  • According to ESPN, 197 of Martin’s 251 rushing yards came before contact with a defender.
  • Martin’s 794 rushing yards on 154 carries in the first eight games are the fifth-most yards for any running back during the first half of their rookie season. The guys ahead of Martin include: Peterson (1,036 yards), Eric Dickerson (995), George Rogers (859) and Billy Sims (859).
  • Martin broke James Wilder’s (219) Buccaneers franchise record for rushing yards in one game.
  • Martin’s 486 yards from scrimmage over Week 8 and 9 are the most in two games since Walter Payton in 1977.

Where Does Martin Rank Now?

I’ve heard several Fantasy writers and friends say that they have Martin ranked just after the top six running backs in the league (Foster, Peterson, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte).But let’s tap the brakes a little bit and take a step back.

Trade Doug Martin in Fantasy Football?

Only Adrian Peterson has more total yards than Martin’s 1,158 through Week 10. Photo Credit: Slobassery

First, I’m a Buccaneers fan and I have been since I moved to Central Florida as a child in 1979. No one wants Martin to be great more than I do. (I have him ranked sixth among Week 11 Running Backs for his game against the Panthers.)

But …

From a Fantasy Football perspective, I don’t think Martin will finish the season among the top 10 running backs in the game. Remember back in September, when C.J. Spiller was rocketing up the rankings? Then a few weeks later, it was Jamaal Charles who was suddenly a top-three running back? Chris Johnson went from bust to boom a couple weeks later? And now it’s Martin.

Unlike the Fantasy Baseball season, you almost have to make kneejerk reactions in Fantasy Football because there are so few games played – even fewer when it came to qualifying for the playoffs. So a streaking player can go from good to great to mediocre to Fantasy reserve within a few weeks.

Why you should trade Doug Martin now!

  • Without two Pro Bowl guards, the Buccaneers are no doubt going to run into some tough times along the offensive line. The running game is built on the backs of offensive guards.
  • Martin’s success came on big runs, for the most part. Had he run 20 times for 10 yards apiece, that’s a much better predictor for future success.
  • Martin is among the league leaders in dropped passes. (Granted, they’re not going to stop throwing to him, but I thought it helped my argument a little bit.)
  • Including the preseason, Martin is just wrapping up a complete college football season. He’s going to hit a wall at some point.
Can you trade Doug Martin in your league?

Despite Martin’s ability in the running and passing game, Fantasy Football owners might be better off trading him before he hits the rookie wall. Photo Credit: Lassenpkt

The Buccaneers’ upcoming schedule is pretty favorable for a running back, and I really do love his talents. Owners in keeper leagues should be excited that they’ll own a likely first-round pick for 2013. But owners in non-keeper leagues should take advantage of all the publicity surrounding Martin right now, and trade him while his value is at its peak.

CBSSports.com’s Dave Richard ranked Martin ranked as the ninth-most valuable player after Week 10, in a non-keeper league. That means there are only nine players he would consider trading Martin for (although, you could also include the two players that are tied with him at 10th overall).

The players ranked above him in that trade list include: Foster, Peterson, Rice, Lynch, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. The players that are tied with him on the trade chart are LeSean McCoy, and Matt Ryan.

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