2015

Free Agent Pablo Sandoval is Not Worth the Money

By Keith Lott

Posted on November 5, 2014

Free agent Pablo Sandoval declined a $15 million qualifying offer from the San Francisco Giants. He declined a three-year $40 million extension earlier in the season.

Sandoval is a three-time World Series Champion, who owns a .426 BA in 47 ABs across 12 World Series games, but his career batting average of .294 is a bit inflated from his younger, lighter years in the Bigs.

Sandoval has not hit .284 since the 2011 season, when he finished with a .315 BA. He has seen a decline in average, hitting just .279 over his last 3 seasons.

The Boston Red Sox will most likely win the bidding war for the Panda, but they are going to overpay, something they wouldn’t do for Jacoby Ellsbury last offseason and they traded away Jon Lester this season, who is entering free agency.

Back in December of 2012, a 29-year-old (turned 30, days later) David Wright signed an 8-year $138 million extension with the New York Mets. He earned $20 mil last season, and hit just .269 with 8 home runs and 63 RBI. Wright has hit 20 home runs in just 2 of the last 6 seasons, driving in 100 runs just once. He is also grossly overpaid, but the difference between Wright and Sandoval is that Wright is the face of the franchise.

2010-2014	Team	G	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	WAR
David Wright	Mets	661	90	355	378	72	10.40%	19.60%	0.285	0.361	0.463	20.6
Pablo Sandoval	Giants	675	78	295	348	6	7.40%	13.40%	0.283	0.336	0.442	14.8

Since the 2010 season, Sandoval (348 RBI) is one of 53 players to drive in 345 runs. Of the 8 “third basemen” to reach that, Sandoval is 7th, behind Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Wright and Mark Reynolds. Only Ramirez and Reynolds have a lower WAR, and just Longoria and Reynolds a lower a BA. Longoria won’t make $15 mil until the 2020 season, when he is 34 years old.

Sandoval does not strike out often, but he doesn’t walk much either. I understand that runs scored is a team stat, but Pablo’s speed is what we call, not fast, and he has scored just 295 runs since 2010. Ryan Zimmerman has scored more runs in nearly 100 less games. Zimmerman made $14 mil this season and will do so until the 2019 season, when his contract jumps to $18 mil. He was 27 when he signed a 6 year $100 mil extension with the Nationals.

The agreement contains a full no-trade clause and adds six years and $100 million to Zimmerman’s current contract, which runs through 2013, plus a team option year worth $24 million. In total, couting the two years on his current deal, Zimmerman will make $126 million over the next eight years or $150 million over the next nine years.- Washington Post

I am not against a player hitting the market and maximizing his paycheck. I guess what I am doing is agreeing with the Giants in saying that free agent Pablo Sandoval is not worth the money.

There were 50 MLB players who earned at least $15 mil in 2014

15 of them were traded to their current teams, and some are looked at as the face of the franchise:
- Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Wainwright
14 of them have only played for their current team:
- Joe Mauer, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Justin Verlander, David Wright, Troy Tulowitzki, Yadier Molina, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jered Weaver
  - Felix Hernandez is the only player to sign as amateur free agent and earn $15+ mil from the same team in 2014
The other 21 have signed huge contracts to join a new team:
- Yankees – CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Hiroki Kuroda, Carlos Beltran
- Angels – Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson
- Red Sox – Mike Napoli, David Ortiz
- Phillies – Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett
- Cardinals – Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta
- Indians – Nick Swisher
- Brewers – Aramis Ramirez
- Mariners – Robinson Cano
- Rangers – Adrian Beltre
- Nationals – Jayson Werth