When to Expect RB Dropoffs – Pt 3

In the first two parts of this RB dropoffs series, we discussed when to expect a RB dropoff to occur, and we highlighted the dropoff numbers for Fantasy RBs from the 1990s and 2000s. We have made it to part three and it is now time to examine the running backs currently in the league.

Has the RB position changed over the years? The obvious answer is yes, and the limited numbers of carries and two-back systems of today’s game back up that answer. Running back-by-committees have taken over and the roles of the RBs of the ‘90s and even ‘00s are disappearing. LateRoundQB.com breaks this down and explains the days of RB carries in the 300+ range are almost extinct.

Current Running Backs in 2012

When I researched the players currently in the NFL I looked for RBs with at least 1,000 career carries, so you will notice some of the big names are missing from the chart. Since we are looking at possible RB dropoffs throughout this series, I felt the need to have the younger players included was unnecessary, but their importance will be highlighted at the end.

Average Career Stats

• Total Carries – 1,469
• Yearly Carries – 245
• Yearly Yards – 1,092
• Age – 27

What to Look For in 2012 Season

In order of projected carries

Projected Carries found at ESPN.com

ADP Rank was found at MyFantasyLeague.com

So, when comparing the three groups of running backs in their prime, the numbers back up the claims mentioned at the top.

Just using a sample size of nine current running backs we can see that the average numbers of yearly carries has declined dramatically from decade to decade. In the ‘90s it was 302, and in the ‘00s it was 288. Now, RBs are only averaging 245 carries so far. The changing landscape of the NFL has definitely made its impact on a very important Fantasy position. This has translated to the average yearly yards declining to its lowest mark. The RBs used for the sample have only averaged 1,092 yards per year compared to 1252 in the ‘90s and 1,274 in ‘00s.

Which RB Dropoffs To Gamble On?

Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson have been sought out No. 1 Fantasy picks over the past three seasons, but the passing of the torch has already happened and these players are only 26 years old. Four of the top six picks this year, according to MyFantasyLeague.com, are young RBs who will carry the bulk of their team’squality rushing attempts.

With the league and most fans falling in love with the long ball, finding RBs this year to solidify Fantasy rosters should be done early and often. Looking at career carries, age and projected 2012 carries, the obvious RBs that should be chosen are Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Ryan Matthews, Maurice Jones-Drew and Chris Johnson. Trent Richardson is a trendy rookie pick and because he will be the feature back and has 286 projected carries, he should be added to the list. That is only seven running backs that are must-own in my eyes.

The wild cards this year in my opinion — and who could make or break the RB position — are Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Darren McFadden. All come with their individual concerns, but after these RBs, you start to approach limited projected carries or split backfields, and weaken your chance of drafting a top RB.

Last, but not least, the dropoffs. Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and Frank Gore are all approaching their dropoff season and should be drafted with caution. Due to the factors we previously discussed, injuries and capable backups, I will be avoiding these guys as No. 1 RBs and only draft them as RB2 or for Flex.

In case you missed it, go here to read Part II: 2000s Fantasy RB Dropoffs at NumbersNeverDie.com