I turned 41 years old today. I’m officially closer to 60 years old than I am to 20 years old. So it got me thinking about both things that people take for granted (vim and vigor of a teenager) to the things people overvalue (politicians). But to put this in a way that you might appreciate, I’m going to mix in 10 overvalued Fantasy Football players.
The Overvalued Issue
The first DavidGonos.com Newsletter was constructed this weekend, and the first one is called, “The Overvalued Issue.” (Although, it’s tough for it to be considered overvalued, when it’s FREE! – Sign up! It’s not too late!)
In the newsletter, J.J. Zachariason discusses how he believes BenJarvus Green-Ellis is being overvalued right now by numerous Fantasy writers and websites.
“Other than all early round quarterbacks, I can’t stand the hype Green-Ellis is getting. He had a 3.7-yard per carry average in 2011 with the Patriots. He also rushed for just 667 yards. The sole reason he was Fantasy relevant was because he scored 11 times. In fact, 45% of his points last year (standard scoring) came from touchdowns. That’s more than LeSean McCoy’s 42.5%. And Shady scored 20 touchdowns.” – J.J. Zachariason, LateRoundQB.com
And this brings to mind a few different issues, but specifically how a Fantasy owner can really take advantage of writer’s recommendations by assessing his own Fantasy league. In other words, you’re not playing against the world, you’re only playing against nine or 11 other people. Your knowledge is only judged against their knowledge.
Who Are You Playing Fantasy Football Against?
Are you playing against Fantasy experts, Fantasy veterans — or these two random guys I found on Flickr? Photo Credit: Aokulaszewski
Experts: When writers get together for mock drafts or experts leagues, there are few secrets. A potential breakout player most likely won’t slip down in the draft, although ones that have had very little offseason news surrounding them (like Isaac Redman or Reggie Bush) might drift back behind the breakout flavors-of-the-week.
Veterans: If your leaguemates are all reasonably well-read in the Fantasy circles, it’s doubtful that the over-hyped breakout players will make it past them either. As a matter of fact, they might draft them even higher, as to prove their knowledge. (You know these guys? They dare you to mock them for taking a player, just so they can rattle off stats about his upcoming dominance.)
Newbies: The less experienced players will still be leaning towards names (Bush) and teams (Steelers) they’re familiar with, so the breakout players can be had much lower than their over-hyped values. Although, with 10-12 owners per league, all it takes is one or two people to use updated rankings and those breakout players will be gone.
10 Overvalued Fantasy Football Players … and 31 Other Things
1. Second-Round Picks: Really, after the first 10 or so players, the draft gets a little scattered until settling back down in Round 3 or so. If you’re in a league that allows trading of draft picks, then consider moving your second-rounder to someone for a third-round pick and a seventh-rounder. (By the way, you can use the DraftCalc.com Draft Pick Calculator to see how a possible trade looks value-wise.)
2. Nielsen Ratings: Why does the television industry still use this outdated system? With social media, likes, follows and online streaming, there are dozens of better ways to judge a TV shows popularity.
3.Soccer
4. Quarterbacks: Zachariason helped me understand this a little better in his book, “The Late Round Quarterback.” But just looking at the first two rounds of most mock drafts, and you’ll likely see five quarterbacks selected — THAT alone should tell you that the position is highly overvalued.
5. Nougat
6. Gold: Why is this valuable? Just because it’s pretty? It does nothing, yet our financial system revolves around it.
7. Denarius Moore: Don’t get me wrong, I like him a lot as a breakout wide receiver in his second year, but this is a perfect case of where writers and mock drafters are picking him a little too high (Round 7), compared to where he’d likely go in a less-psychotic league.
8. TMZ
9. Two and a Half Men
10. Eyebrows: They hold sweat out of our eyes? How often are our foreheads sweating so much it’s dripping into our eyes?
11. U2
12. “Favorites” button on the TV remote
13. Wristwatches that Cost More Then $50
14. Trent Richardson: Now he’s getting picked up in the first round in some drafts? Crazy talk.
15. Tight Ends: When you need just one of them, while also needing four or five running backs, there’s just no sense in drafting a tight end in the first two rounds.
16. Broncos WRs: I’d still take both starting Eagles WRs (Jeremy Maclin over Demaryius Thomas and DeSean Jackson over Eric Decker), which is not always the case in mock drafts right now. Way too much value put on Peyton Manning’s health.
Raiders WR Denarius Moore was inconsistent in his rookie year with Oakland, but he played much better once QB Carson Palmer came aboard. Photo Credit: TheTigerReport
17. Circus Peanuts
18. Hitting coaches
19. Teenagers: When did we decide to give teenagers everything they ask for? This generation is REALLY going to suck in 10-15 years.
20. Walnuts
21. Greek Yogurt
22. Larry Fitzgerald: It’s not really a condemnation of him, specifically, as it is the second-ranked receiver in Fantasy, no matter who you choose. The dropoff from No. 1 (Calvin Johnson) to No. 2 is bigger than it has been since the early ‘90s when Jerry Rice was dominating.
23. McDonald’s
24. Robert Griffin III: Panthers rookie QB Cam Newton had the best Fantasy season of any rookie QB ever. EVER. The odds of RG3 having a fraction of Newton’s season is highly unlikely. Yet, people are taking the Heisman winner in Round 8, before players like Isaac Redman, Ben Tate and David Wilson.
25. Beets: Why are these on any salad bar, ever?
26. AFC North: The Ravens are old, the Steelers are bruised, the Browns are the Browns. The Bengals came out of nowhere last year, but will they be able to do it again with a tougher schedule?
27. Abs
28. Mike Shanahan (read “Game Plan: A Radical Approach to Decision Making in the National Football League” for just 99 cents!)
29. Skinny Chicks
30. Remakes of Movies from the Past 40 Years
31. Eel Sauce
32. Harrison Ford: Every movie he does makes me think Han Solo won the role.
33. Earrings: Either you’re hot or not, hanging a doorknocker from your ear won’t help that. It can only hinder it.
34. Expensive Cars Without Cool Names: Like, high-end Mercedes and BMWs that are apparently much cooler than the lower-end Mercedes and BMWs, but I have no idea because they just have numbers. They need to have names like Countach and Testarosa.
35. Paddleboarding
36. Lions RBs: Too many cooks in the kitchen.
37. Stevan Ridley: This is actually a weird one. As a pick in Round 8 or 9, he’s not overvalued. But once he wins the job outright, he’ll shoot up into Round 5 or 6– or possibly earlier – with the likes of Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller. But Bill Belichick doesn’t produce great Fantasy running backs, with just one top 12 RB in the past 10 seasons (Corey Dillon in 2004). Ridley will be serviceable, but he’s still more of a flex or backup RB.
38. Philadelphia
39. Angelina Jolie
40. Any Former Music Channel
41. Barbecue Potato Chips
Did I miss anything? Any overvalued Fantasy Football players I forgot? What can I say, I’m grumpy for becoming an old (er) man and I’m in “Get off my lawn” mode!
