Devin Jordan

253 Batting Average Risers and Fallers

Carlos Santana

Because it takes it takes 910 at bats for batting average to stabilize, it is not very helpful to look at the small sample of at bats a player has had in 2014 (as the video below will show).

When you try to decide whether or not to by into a player’s early season slump or success, you have to look a bit deeper.

So we will look at the players that are projected, by Steamer, to outperform or underperform their current batting average by the largest margin for the rest of the season.

Below are some players that should outperform or underperform their current batting averages, according to their Steamer projections.

Batting Average Risers and Fallers

NameApril AVGROS AVGAVG Diff
Daniel Nava0.1490.2620.113
J.B. Shuck0.1560.2630.107
Yonder Alonso0.1670.270.103
Mike Moustakas0.1490.250.101
Pablo Sandoval0.1770.2770.1
Marc Krauss0.130.2290.099
Jedd Gyorko0.1510.250.099
David Lough0.1720.270.098
Carlos Santana0.1510.2440.093
Brad Miller0.1740.2630.089
Jordy Mercer0.1670.2510.084
Ryan Goins0.150.2330.083
Prince Fielder0.2060.2860.08
Carl Crawford0.1940.2710.077
Curtis Granderson0.1360.2120.076
Alexi Amarista0.1720.2460.074
Brett Lawrie0.1920.2640.072
Ryan Raburn0.1640.2360.072
Alejandro De Aza0.1850.2560.071
David Freese0.1930.2640.071
Michael Choice0.2040.2740.07
Chris Carter0.1530.2220.069
Pedro Alvarez0.1720.240.068
Raul Ibanez0.1570.2250.068
Allen Craig0.220.2880.068
Chase Headley0.1860.2520.066
Zack Cozart0.180.2440.064
George Springer0.1820.2450.063
Billy Butler0.2240.2870.063
Jason Heyward0.2060.2620.056
Jhonny Peralta0.1960.2520.056
Will Venable0.1980.2530.055
David DeJesus0.190.2430.053
Mike Olt0.1640.2160.052
Cody Asche0.20.2510.051
Carlos Gonzalez0.2410.290.049
Colby Rasmus0.1940.2410.047
Ike Davis0.1960.2420.046
Ryan Flaherty0.1880.2320.044
Miguel Cabrera0.2770.3210.044
Matt Kemp0.2250.2680.043
Elvis Andrus0.2290.2720.043
Denard Span0.2330.2750.042
Mark Trumbo0.210.2520.042
Starling Marte0.2290.270.041
Abraham Almonte0.2040.2450.041
Chris Johnson0.2310.2720.041
Andre Ethier0.2270.2680.041
Eric Sogard0.2170.2570.04
Kyle Seager0.2290.2660.037
Salvador Perez0.2450.2820.037
Asdrubal Cabrera0.220.2560.036
Wilin Rosario0.2440.2790.035
Brian McCann0.2240.2590.035
Kolten Wong0.2250.260.035
Aaron Hicks0.1880.2230.035
Nick Castellanos0.2330.2670.034
Ian Desmond0.2320.2660.034
Nick Swisher0.2110.2450.034
Grady Sizemore0.2080.2420.034
Nate Schierholtz0.2170.2510.034
Neil Walker0.2350.2680.033
Jean Segura0.2440.2760.032
Travis d'Arnaud0.2090.2410.032
Yunel Escobar0.2190.2510.032
David Ortiz0.250.2820.032
Junior Lake0.2210.2520.031
Buster Posey0.2640.2950.031
Jay Bruce0.220.250.03
Ruben Tejada0.2210.2490.028
Brian Dozier0.2160.2430.027
Jason Kipnis0.2340.260.026
Travis Snider0.2270.2520.025
Donnie Murphy0.220.2440.024
Corey Hart0.240.2620.022
Alex Presley0.2420.2630.021
Brian Roberts0.2220.2430.021
Jason Castro0.220.240.02
Eric Young0.2150.2350.02
David Wright0.2620.2810.019
Martin Prado0.2630.2820.019
Michael Brantley0.2550.2730.018
Gerardo Parra0.2560.2740.018
Luis Valbuena0.2180.2360.018
Alex Avila0.220.2380.018
Joe Mauer0.2760.2940.018
Carlos Beltran0.2630.280.017
Chris Davis0.250.2670.017
Kelly Johnson0.2190.2360.017
Dustin Pedroia0.270.2870.017
Kole Calhoun0.250.2660.016
Aaron Hill0.250.2660.016
Omar Infante0.2770.2930.016
Matt Carpenter0.2640.2790.015
Edwin Encarnacion0.250.2640.014
Brandon Belt0.2550.2690.014
Matt Dominguez0.2310.2450.014
Norichika Aoki0.2840.2970.013
Andrew McCutchen0.2860.2980.012
Domonic Brown0.2530.2650.012
Jonny Gomes0.230.2420.012
Joey Votto0.280.2920.012
Josmil Pinto0.2460.2570.011
J.J. Hardy0.2420.2530.011
A.J. Pollock0.2580.2680.01
Wil Myers0.2450.2550.01
B.J. Upton0.2130.2230.01
Khris Davis0.2380.2480.01
Marcus Semien0.2250.2350.01
Yasiel Puig0.2760.2860.01
Adam Jones0.2650.2740.009
Jose Tabata0.2620.2710.009
Jackie Bradley Jr0.2440.2520.008
Dexter Fowler0.2310.2390.008
Hunter Pence0.2620.2690.007
Brandon Phillips0.2550.2620.007
Alex Gordon0.270.2760.006
Jon Jay0.2690.2750.006
Dan Uggla0.2020.2080.006
Jose Altuve0.2760.2820.006
Derek Jeter0.2720.2760.004
Matt Holliday0.2830.2870.004
DJ LeMahieu0.2910.2950.004
Albert Pujols0.2790.2810.002
Brandon Hicks0.2130.2150.002
Yoenis Cespedes0.2580.260.002
Dustin Ackley0.2560.2580.002
Robinson Chirinos0.2320.2330.001
Yan Gomes0.250.2510.001
Billy Hamilton0.2450.2460.001
Giancarlo Stanton0.2690.2690
Yasmani Grandal0.2540.2540
Jose Abreu0.270.269-0.001
Hanley Ramirez0.2760.275-0.001
Ryan Hanigan0.2410.24-0.001
Jonathan Schoop0.2410.24-0.001
Robinson Cano0.2960.294-0.002
Mitch Moreland0.2540.251-0.003
Mark Reynolds0.2240.22-0.004
John Jaso0.2410.237-0.004
Michael Bourn0.2630.259-0.004
Todd Frazier0.2470.242-0.005
Jonathan Villar0.2410.236-0.005
Victor Martinez0.2980.293-0.005
Aramis Ramirez0.2770.271-0.006
A.J. Pierzynski0.2740.268-0.006
Adam Eaton0.2810.274-0.007
Erick Aybar0.280.272-0.008
Garrett Jones0.250.242-0.008
Jayson Werth0.2880.279-0.009
Josh Reddick0.2410.232-0.009
Seth Smith0.2570.248-0.009
Josh Donaldson0.2790.268-0.011
Alberto Callaspo0.2690.258-0.011
Jimmy Rollins0.250.238-0.012
Alfonso Soriano0.2470.235-0.012
Russell Martin0.2420.229-0.013
Xander Bogaerts0.2780.265-0.013
Bryce Harper0.2890.275-0.014
Eric Hosmer0.3010.287-0.014
Chris Iannetta0.2330.218-0.015
Justin Smoak0.250.235-0.015
Ryan Howard0.2550.24-0.015
Torii Hunter0.30.285-0.015
Mike Trout0.3210.305-0.016
Brandon Crawford0.2590.243-0.016
Evan Gattis0.270.253-0.017
Ryan Ludwick0.260.243-0.017
Anthony Rizzo0.2830.265-0.018
David Murphy0.2820.264-0.018
Howie Kendrick0.2960.277-0.019
Nick Markakis0.30.281-0.019
Brandon Moss0.2640.245-0.019
Coco Crisp0.2780.259-0.019
Ian Kinsler0.2830.263-0.02
Miguel Montero0.2780.258-0.02
Andrelton Simmons0.2890.268-0.021
Evan Longoria0.2860.264-0.022
Ben Revere0.2990.277-0.022
Lucas Duda0.2530.231-0.022
Brett Gardner0.2790.257-0.022
Jed Lowrie0.2860.263-0.023
Shin-Soo Choo0.3030.28-0.023
Jonathan Lucroy0.2950.271-0.024
Steve Lombardozzi0.2920.268-0.024
Welington Castillo0.2760.252-0.024
Marlon Byrd0.2770.253-0.024
Adrian Gonzalez0.3170.292-0.025
Ryan Braun0.3180.293-0.025
Scooter Gennett0.3020.276-0.026
Nolan Arenado0.310.284-0.026
Carlos Ruiz0.2970.27-0.027
Daniel Murphy0.3040.277-0.027
Austin Jackson0.3070.28-0.027
Alcides Escobar0.2870.26-0.027
Jose Lobaton0.2660.239-0.027
Everth Cabrera0.2840.256-0.028
Nelson Cruz0.2840.255-0.029
Michael Cuddyer0.3170.288-0.029
Starlin Castro0.3080.278-0.03
Christian Yelich0.2920.262-0.03
James Loney0.3010.27-0.031
Freddie Freeman0.320.289-0.031
Jose Bautista0.2930.261-0.032
Jacoby Ellsbury0.3120.278-0.034
Ben Zobrist0.3020.267-0.035
Desmond Jennings0.2790.244-0.035
Adeiny Hechavarria0.280.245-0.035
Paul Goldschmidt0.3230.287-0.036
Chris Colabello0.2950.257-0.038
Carlos Gomez0.2930.253-0.04
Leonys Martin0.3080.267-0.041
Yangervis Solarte0.3030.262-0.041
Mike Zunino0.2740.233-0.041
Anthony Rendon0.3160.274-0.042
Josh Wilson0.2730.228-0.045
Chris Owings0.3130.267-0.046
Alex Rios0.3210.275-0.046
Michael Morse0.3020.256-0.046
Chris Denorfia0.3140.266-0.048
Jason Kubel0.2880.239-0.049
Casey McGehee0.2970.247-0.05
Dioner Navarro0.3110.261-0.05
Conor Gillaspie0.3020.251-0.051
Mike Napoli0.3050.252-0.053
Matt Adams0.3210.268-0.053
Melky Cabrera0.3420.288-0.054
Justin Upton0.3260.271-0.055
Marcell Ozuna0.310.254-0.056
Adam LaRoche0.3120.256-0.056
Kurt Suzuki0.3020.246-0.056
Justin Morneau0.3430.286-0.057
Yadier Molina0.350.292-0.058
Adam Dunn0.2690.211-0.058
Danny Espinosa0.2880.229-0.059
Troy Tulowitzki0.3640.305-0.059
Trevor Plouffe0.3040.245-0.059
Juan Uribe0.3050.243-0.062
Angel Pagan0.340.278-0.062
Rajai Davis0.3330.268-0.065
Jarrod Saltalamacchia0.2990.232-0.067
Alexei Ramirez0.3510.273-0.078
Emilio Bonifacio0.3370.258-0.079
Matt Joyce0.3280.248-0.08
Brandon Barnes0.3450.264-0.081
Dayan Viciedo0.3480.266-0.082
Matt Wieters0.3380.254-0.084
Dee Gordon0.3440.255-0.089
Chase Utley0.3550.263-0.092
Charlie Blackmon0.3740.282-0.092
Tyler Flowers0.3540.215-0.139
Derek Norris0.3860.24-0.146

Players to Buy Low

These good guys make for good buys in the coming weeks, despite their slow start to the season.

Carlos Santana, C/1B/3B, Cleveland

Santana, to the chagrin of many Fantasy owners, has batted .151, but there have been many reasons to expect Santana to live up to his .245 rest of season projection. With increased walk rates—BB% (2013: 14.5%, 2014: 19.1%) — and plate discipline — O-Swing% (2013: 25.8%, 2014: 17.3%) — Santana has been a more patient hitter.

At its essence, Santana’s struggles have stemmed from his fall to an 11.8 LD%.  While line-drive rates show a low year-to-year correlation, Fantasy owners should expect Santana’s LD% to regress back to his career average of 18.7%, and increase his AVG along the way.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit

Like Santana, Prince Fielder’s walk rate has improved from 2013, while his average has decreased.  Fielder did not have a month in all of 2013 where he hit under .228, not that that’s an impressive number, but it’s a lot more desirable than the tango he has done with the Mendoza line in April. But here’s the kicker. The league average BABIP on line drives is .682, and Fielder’s career average BABIP on line drives is .727. Compare that with the .563 BABIP on line drives that Fielder had in April, and we can be certain that a lot of the hard hit balls Fielder hit right at opponents in the first month will begin to find empty space and increase his average.

Players to Sell High

Get ready to move some of these players, as they are off to uncharacteristically hot starts, which means they should dip back down soon.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia

Utley has hit sixty-five points over his career average BABIP in 2014, and surprise surprise, he has hit almost exactly sixty-five points over his career AVG this year. More importantly, like Marcus Giles, Edgardo Elfanso, Carlos Baerga, and Chuck Knoblauch, Ultely has been to fall apart from a physical perspective over the recent years. The combination of the regression that will come in Utley’s BABIP and his physical durability, make him a good sell high candidate. Look to see if your leagues Jedd Gyorko owner has grown impatient.

A Player We’re Not Sure What to Do With

This guy falls into a category we’re not sure how to handle. 

 Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox

Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox, Batting Average Risers and Fallers

White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez hit .342 with four homers and 19 RBI in the month of April. Photo by Brule Laker

I’m not sure what to make of these numbers, partly because I’m not sure when plate discipline numbers stabilize, although, I would assume it happens quickly.

Ramirez has swung less at pitches in the strike zone — Z-Swing% (2013: 69.3%, 2014: 63.5%) — and made more contact with pitches in the strike zone — Z-Contact% (2013: 93.5%, 2014: 97.5%). While it remains outside the knowledge of the author on whether or not there is an inverse correlation between Z-Swing% and Z-Contact%, it intuitively makes sense.

If a hitter begins to lay off of pitches as pitchers attack his weaknesses, even though those pitches may be strikes, and only swings at strikes he knows he can mash, he should be able to make more contact with pitches that are strikes because he doesn’t swing at pitches he can’t handle.

Follow Me on Twitter

Devin Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed reading him, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.

1 Comment

Leave a Reply

To Top