2012

ProFootballMatchups – Best Week 3 NFL Bets

Welcome to the Week 3 of the NFL season and ProFootballMatchups.com picks of the week. This is where they’ll post their analysis of what they think are the best Week 3 NFL bets, helping you decide between the tough bets and the easy ones. Each week, they’l post the top games of the week, usually along with their best Underdog Bet of the Week. Finally, you’ll also get their Teaser of the Week.

 

Best Week 3 NFL Bets

Games of the Week: Lions at Titans

2012 has not been kind to the young Lions, with their 1-1 record not indicating their play. They struggled to beat a bad Rams team in their home opener and were physically abused against a tough 49ers team in Week 2. The offense has been successful at moving the ball, but it has not lead to points due to costly turnovers. The offense is averaging 23 points and 362.5 yards per game. The passing attack led by Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson is averaging 280 yards per game. The defense has been stout against the pass only allowing 187 yards per game (6th in the NFL), but the defense has struggled overall allowing 25 points and 299.5 yards per game.

The Titans are struggling out of the gate and have been abysmal offensively.  Chris Johnson play has been poor, which has led to a running “attack” that is only averaging 29 yards a game (worst in the NFL). The overall output of the offense has also struggled only averaging 11.5 points and 248 total yards. The defense has been just as poor allowing over 400 yards per game and 36 points per game, with 248 yards coming through the air.

So much for a home field advantage the Titans are 1-4 in their last 5 home game and the Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with losing records.

ATS Prediction: Lions -3.5

 

Games of the Week: Jets at Dolphins

Darrelle Revis - Week 3 Best Best

Darrelle Revis is questionable for Week 3 against the Dolphins, which greatly affects the final numbers.

The Jets are coming off a disappointing loss in Pittsburgh, where the offense struggled to move the ball after the first few series. The offense is averaging 29 points and 301 total yards of offense per game, but the majority of those stats were collected in the drubbing of Buffalo in Week 1. The passing attack has continued to be an achilles heel for this team as they are only averaging 197.5 yards per game. The defense has been a Jeckyl and Hyde group, dominating Buffalo and struggling to get Pittsburgh’s offense off the field in the 4th quarter. For the season the defense is allowing 27.5 points and 360.5 total yards of offense per game. The rushing defense has been inconsistent at best allowing 130.5 per game, but held Pittsburgh under 100 yards and an average of about 2 yards a carry.

For the first time in years the Dolphins won their home opener, which was led by an aggressive offensive attack . The offense was led by a running attack which is averaging 171 yards per game — ranked 2nd in the NFL — and is the main reason why they are averaging 22.5 points and 363.5 yards per game.  The defense has been stingy against the run, only allowing 53 yards per game, but the passing attack has struggled allowing opposing offenses to score 21.5 points and 366.5 yards per game.

[gambling analysis] I like the Jets this week, but this stat scares me: The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, but what makes me feel better is the Phins are 22-49-1 ATS in their last 72 home games. The Phins are a good under play, since they are 12-4-1 under the total in their last 17 games. The Dolphins and Jets have split the last 4 games, with the road team winning in all four games.The road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 contests.

NOTES: CB Darrelle Revis is questionable

ATS Prediction: Under 40 and Jets -2.5 if Revis is healthy

 

TZER OF THE WEEK: DAL, SF

This is one of those weeks that a teaser may not be a good play. I love the 49ers in a teaser, but there are a few teams (New Orleans, Dalls or Chicago) that could be teased with San Fran.

The reason I am taking the 49ers is they have one of the most dominating defenses (310 yards and 20.5 points per game)  in the NFL and they have established a pretty solid offense, anchored by a physical offensive line, that has opened holes for the third ranked running attack in the NFL (167 yards per game). My only concern with the 49ers is that they will be traveling east and will be playing earlier than usual, since it is a 1pm kickoff eastern time.

The reason why I am adding the Cowboys over the Bears and Saints is the Saints look lost without Sean Payton, even though they play better at home, this is just a good game to avoid all together since I see them winning by 3, which would be a loss if the line is 9. The Bears are in disarray after QB Jay Cutler called out his offensive line and the Rams are quietly playing competitive football. The Cowboys historically have been a solid home team and with it being their home opener, I expect them to come out fired up after two taxing road games.

ATS PREDICTION: 49ers -1, Cowboys -1.5

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