Just because you have some good 2017 Fantasy Football keepers on your team doesn’t mean you are necessarily set up for success in the coming years.
A good Fantasy owner in a competitive keeper league has one eye on this year’s squad, and one eye on the future. That cross-eyed owner is hoping to find success in consecutive seasons, which can be quite difficult to do.
So we’ve tracked down a handful of players (mostly wide receivers) that we believe will have a precipitous drop in value from this summer to next summer. These 2017 Fantasy Football keepers might not be worthy of such a distinction just 12 months from now.
2017 Fantasy Football Keepers: 5 On the Way Down For 2018
We used their current 2017 Average Draft Positions in 12-team standard leagues found on FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
1. Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington Redskins: ADP 3.06
Over the course of the 2017 offseason, I’ve listed several times why I think Pryor is overvalued this season – much less for the 2018 season. So I’ll go over some of my reasons once again why Pryor is not someone I’d draft in the first five rounds of a 2017 draft. The mere fact I believe he’ll be a disappointment this season means I believe he’ll have lesser Fantasy value entering 2018.
- Free-agent wide receivers that go from not being a WR1 on one team to being expected to be the WR1 on a new team rarely have success in Year 1. Just because Pryor saw success last season (on 141 targets) doesn’t mean success will follow. (The Redskins’ top target-getter last season was Pierre Garcon, with 114.)
- Pryor is a former quarterback that has one full season as a wide receiver. He’s going to need some time.
- Terrelle’s “prior” history shows that he’s a bit of a headcase, and that could cause some issues if things don’t go his way early on.
This is what former Browns teammate Brian Hartline said of Pryor:
”If I’m building a team, what is [Pryor]?” Hartline said, via Ohio.com. “Is he my No. 1? God, I hope not because let’s put it this way: For me, I want a guy day in and day out I know what I’m getting. You don’t know what you’re going to get. You don’t know who’s going to show up. You don’t know if he’s going to get in trouble. You don’t know if he’s going to smart off. I need stability. That’s so more important to me. I need a guy that runs routes. I need stability. I need constant production. Is he a No. 2? OK, yeah. I mean maybe. He kind of disappeared the last couple weeks. So I’m very apprehensive as a Cleveland Browns guy to give out a contract. Listen, you had one year. You’re a flash in the pan. You’re trying to tell me with a guy that had suspect personality characteristics, I’m going to go ahead and hand you a bunch of money but you’re going to work harder? Uh, I think I’m going to bet against that if I’m a betting man.” – Hartline, ProFootballTalk.com
Also, Pryor is a free agent after this season, so he could end up on an NFL team with a subpar quarterback. And even if he gets to stay in Washington, the Redskins don’t have Kirk Cousins locked up beyond this season, so they could have a subpar QB in 2018 themselves!
2. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers: ADP 4.09
Adams posted 12 touchdown catches in his third-year breakout in 2016, but now, more is expected from the Fresno State product. Should he put together another solid season, he might be too expensive for the Packers to hold onto him after this upcoming contract year. That means he could end up elsewhere in 2018, without future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers throwing to him.
#MarketShare for Davante Adams in 2017: 20 % of Passes for 115 targets! #FantasyFootball #NFL#Packers https://t.co/mCSg4stoMk pic.twitter.com/nJRWmdjm9q
— CSD Fantasy (@csdfantasy) August 6, 2017
3. Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: ADP 4.10
There’s no room for error for Bryant, who sat out an entire year already for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. He’s another violation away from being Justin-Blackmon-balled from playing for a long time if he screws up again!
He’s being drafted because of what everyone remembers from his breakout 2014 rookie season, along with what he did in 11 games in 2015 (765 yards, six TDs). If he has a mediocre season, his ADP next year (the final year of his rookie contract), could be much lower.
4. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks: ADP 5.12
Despite coming into the league in the same season as Rob Gronkowski, Graham seems like he’s five or six years older, even though Gronk misses a ton of games due to injury.
The Seahawks’ offense relied on him last season quite a bit (nearly 1,000 receiving yards), but let’s not forget his ADP was 8.12 in 12-team leagues.
5. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots: ADP 6.05
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There’s a new speedy sheriff in town, and his name is Brandin Cooks. This year might be a relative wash for the formers Saints player as he learns the new offense, and ends up getting used for a lot of over-the-top action. But by next season, Cooks could be Tom Brady’s favorite toy, pushing Edelman into the bin with Woody and Buzz Lightyear.
Plus, the Pats brought in Dwayne Allen, and there’s a large expectation that Edelman will lose red-zone targets in 2017. He’s under contract for the next couple seasons, but he’ll be a 32-year-old wide receiver next summer.
Are there some 2017 Fantasy Football keepers you expect to drop in value next season, also? Drop a comment below and make your picks – you’ll help some other readers!
Davante Adams Photo Credit: Keith Allison